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Often times in the postseason, the two best teams don’t make it to the World Series. The vagaries of baseball and short series make it a bit random which teams reach the final round of the playoffs. That doesn’t appear to be the case this season with the Phillies dispatching the Dodgers in five, and the Yankees triumphing over the pesky Angels in six. By virtue of the American League winning the All-Star game, the Yankees will have homefield advantage. Game 1 is on Wednesday.

The above simulation results are based on the following pitching match-ups:

Game 1 – Sabathia vs. Lee

Game 2 – Burnett vs. Hamels

Game 3 – Martinez vs. Pettite

Game 4 – Blanton vs. Gaudin

Game 5 – Lee vs. Sabathia

Game 6 – Burnett vs. Hamels

Game 7 – Pettite vs. Martinez

The World Series schedule probably prevents either team from going with a three-man rotation (as the Yankees did in the ALCS) because it would force the entire rotation to go on three days rest. Thus AccuScore is projected Chad Gaudin and Joe Blanton to the fourth starters for their respective teams. Hideki Matsui is more than likely to sit out in the three games in Philadelphia, and will probably only serve as a pinch-hitter. When the series is at Yankees Stadium the Phillies will probably utilize Ben Francisco or Eric Bruntlett as the DH. Matt Stairs is a possibility when facing a right-hander.

The marquee match-up is a battle between two former Cleveland lefties, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. They are currently projected to face off in Game 1 in New York and Game 5 in Philadelphia. Here the simulations show Sabathia having the clear edge winning at home 65% of the time and 50% on the road. Lee actually has pitched very well against the Yankees in recent outings. Over his past 3 starts against New York he has gone 19 innings allowing just 4 runs with 16 strikeouts. Lee being a southpaw could also play a big factor in neutralizing the short rightfield porch at Yankees Stadium. The Phillies are also familiar with Sabathia because of his time spent in Milwaukee last season. That experience should help them come Game 1.

A.J. Burnett is projected for a big edge against the struggling Cole Hamels in Games 2 and 6 in New York. Burnett is winning 64% of the time in both games. If Hamels were performing as he did last postseason, this spread would be much closer. In three starts this postseason however, Hamels has looked below average allowing 11 earned runs and 6 home runs in just 14.2 innings. Any performances like that against the powerful Yankees lineup will likely end in a loss. Pedro Martinez facing off against Andy Pettite is a great match-up between two playoff tested veterans. While their stuff doesn’t quite compare to their rotation counterparts, their two match-ups could be the most well-pitched of the series. The Game 4 match-up between Blanton and Gaudin slightly favors the Phillies, but will likely just be both pitchers trying to avoid big innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen.

One thing Charlie Manuel will have to ponder is allowing Martinez to pitch Game 2 and shifting Hamels to Game 3. Pedro obviously has plenty of experience pitching in New York and against the Yankees, and won’t be intimidated by the moment in the slightest. Hamels has also pitched better at home than on the road this season. The one thing that would do however is shift Hamels to a potential Game 7, a role the Phillies can’t be comfortable with based on his current form. Mitigating that question would be the ability to throw Lee on short rest, and the availability of the entire staff in a final game.

Another issue for Philadelphia will be in the latter innings in the bullpen. Manuel only has one experienced lefty, Scott Eyre, to combat the likes of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Robinson Cano. He also will have limited ability to turnaround switch-hitters Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, and Jorge Posada as all three hit for more power from the left-side. Rookie Antonio Bastardo could be included on the roster for just this reason, but he faced just one batter in the NLCS allowing a hit and allowed 17 earned runs in just 23.2 regular season innings. Closer Brad Lidge also has to remain a question mark despite his three solid outings against the Dodgers. The Yankees are a much more patient lineup that features much more power than L.A.

New York is not without flaws themselves. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes were expected to be the aces in the hole for the Yankees as two power arms to bridge the middle innings to Mariano Rivera. Things have not worked out that way as the two young right-handers have allowed 16 hits and 4 earned runs in just 8 innings of combined postseason work. The Yankees could also have the same problem as the Phillies against lefties. Philadelphia’s featured hitters (Utley, Howard, Ibañez) are all left-handed. Phil Coke has been solid in his role against lefties allowing just three hits in his last 8.2 innings. Damaso Marte though has been horrendous with a 9.45 ERA this season. Manager Joe Girardi’s penchant for changing pitchers according to left-right match-ups and late inning pinch-running could create unnecessary handicaps for the Yankees as well especially in the National League park without a pitcher’s spot in the lineup.

Both teams have some weaknesses, but clearly are the best each league has to offer. The Yankees though, with their dominant frontline pitching and terrific top-to-bottom lineup has the edge in the series. New York is winning the series 66% of the time making them a very solid favorite to prevent a Philadelphia repeat. If the Phillies can win one of the first two games in New York, it will significantly improve their chances of winning because they feature the largest simulation deficits overall.