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All 3 contending teams in the AL Central made significant moves. The Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn, Minnesota acquired SS Orlando Cabrera and the White Sox acquired former Cy Young Jake Peavy.

The Detroit Tigers are currently in first place in the AL Central. Before the trade deadline, in 10,000 season simulations it was the White Sox coming from third place to win the division at a leading 43 percent. The reason why this is happening is the Tigers and Minnesota Twins play each other 10 more times while the White Sox play both teams just 6 more time each. On average, the Tigers and Twins are splitting these “extra” 4 match-ups and the White Sox sneak in to the top of the division.

Under the assumption that Jake Peavy is healthy and returns around September 1^st, here is how the trade deadline moves have impacted the AL Central:

The Tigers are now in front with a 43 percent chance of winning the division. The White Sox are second with a 35% chance. Jake Peavy does help the White Sox. Without him they average 85.1 wins per simulation and winning the division 30% of the time. The Twins are winning more games with Cabrera but they did not improve as much as the Tigers and therefore saw their chances of winning the division drop slightly.