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Golden State Warriors – Ronny Turiaf doubtful
New Orleans Hornets – James Posey expected to return today
Chicago Bulls – Luol Deng and Derrick Rose both out
Utah Jazz – Kirilenko game-time decision
Toronto Raptors – Antoine Wright out
Atlanta Hawks - Joe Johnson out again. Questionable for Friday.
Memphis Grizzlies - Marc Gasol questionable. If he does not play, Hasheem Thabeet would get another start.
Philadelphia 76ers - Thaddeus broke his thumb on his non-shooting hand. Out tonight and day-to-day going forward. Lou Williams game-time decision.
Washington Wizards - Alonzo Gee signed to another 10-day contract

Here are the top four seeds in each region:

MIDWEST REGION
Kansas is the tourney favorite
Rock Chalk Jayhawk is the consensus favorite of the media to win it all, and we agree.  AccuScore’s highest probability bracket has Kansas as the most likely champion in 2010.  While the Midwest looks brutal with the presence of Ohio State (a top-seed candidate) and Georgetown (should have been a 2), the Jayhawks only have to play one of them in the Elite Eight. 

In reality, Kansas’ half of the Midwest region if pretty easy with a shaky Michigan St. squad and an over-seeded Maryland team as the potential roadblocks. Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry should roll through to the regional finals.

We coulda been contenders…
UNLV and Northern Iowa could have been darkhorses to reach the Sweet Sixteen with the right draw.  Instead they face each other in a tough 8/9 game, and then face Kansas in Oklahoma City.  At least one of them gets to go home with one tournament win.

Who wants to Volunteer?
We have never understood the appeal of Tennessee. The Vols main consistent feature is their maddening inconsistency.  This is a team that beat Kentucky by 9 points, and also lost to USC by 22 and Vanderbilt by 19.  As a result, Tennessee is barely a favorite winning less than 51% of simulations against 11th-seeded San Diego State. 

Celebrate St. Louis
I hope you all get tickets to the St. Louis regional as three top-10 teams – Kansas, Georgetown, and Ohio State – should be there the 2nd weekend of the tournament.  The stacked bracket really only affects Georgetown and Ohio St. because only one can reach the Elite Eight.  That Sweet 16 game could easily have been a 1 vs. 2 game.  Instead fans might get a bonus before even the 4th round.

EAST REGION
Callow Cats
Kentucky is über-talented granted, but it is still extremely young.  Three of the top four are freshmen.  The popular notion that freshmen “aren’t freshmen” by March doesn’t make any sense.  They are still in their first year of college basketball, and have yet to experience the pressure of a one-and-done scenario with the entire nation watching.

The Wildcats could face former number-one Texas which has been inconsistent, but is undeniably talented enough to get a win. Beyond that, a potential 3rd round game against a very good Wisconsin team or underseeded-Temple is a much more difficult proposition than the ones presented to the other top seeds.  Big East tourney champ West Virginia also looms in the regional finals.  Kentucky has shown that they can play up or down to the level of competition, and had several uncomfortably close games in the SEC.  Doing that in the next couple weeks against better competition would probably end in a loss.

Pay Attention to Wisconsin
With Purdue the shell of its former elite self, Wisconsin is easily the best 4-seed in the tournament. The Badgers are facing the weakest 13-seed in Wofford, and match-up very well against a good Temple squad.  Using efficiency ratings, Wisconsin outscored their Big 10 opponents by 0.17 per possession.  Kentucky outscored their SEC opponents by 0.14 per possession.  Stylistically, this potential 3rd round game would be great since Wisconsin has averaged 13 (!) fewer possessions a night than the Wildcats.  It would be a great battle of wills between a great team and a great collection of talent.

Double-Digits Lurking
Missouri and Washington are both slightly favored in the first round despite being 10 and 11 seeds respectively.  Marquette-Washington could be the most entertaining games of the first round with two of the best seniors in Lazar Hayward and Quincy Pondexter.  The style contrast should be fun as well with Marquette shooting from the perimeter and Washington attacking the rim.  Clemson vs. Missouri should be fun as well with both teams liking to play up-tempo and create pressure.

Back New Mexico at your own risk
The Lobos out of the Mountain West have become something of a media darling ranking in the top 10 and having a 15 game winning streak.  Despite not losing for 3 months, the Lobos ranked just FOURTH in their league in efficiency margin behind BYU, UNLV, and SDSU.  They also rate 47th in Ken Pomeroy’s overall ratings.  New Mexico has by far the lowest winning percentage of all the 3-seeds at just 70% against Montana.

Here are the top four seeds in each region:

SOUTH REGION
Duke has a paved road ahead…
West Virginia was considered for one of the final number one seeds, but the Dukies got top billing in the South Region, and shouldn’t face a challenge until the Elite 8.  Cal is better than their national rep, and Louisville is talented but neither has displayed the consistency and quality of an elite team.  Purdue without Robbie Hummel just isn’t the same team.  Even Baylor of Villanova, the most likely candidates to reach the Regional Final, are mediocre defensive squads.

…but is it enough?
Even with the easiest road of all the top seeds, Duke isn’t the favorite to come out of the South – Villanova is.  According to AccuScore’s highest probability bracket, the Wildcats are the favorite to reach the Final Four.

No respect
Cal is by far the lowest seeded regular season champion of any of the power conferences. The Bears’ were rewarded for winning the regular season by 2 full games with a date with Louisville, and then top-seeded Duke if they pull out a win. While the eye test says Cal was a top-25 team at the end of the year, but losses to Oregon St. and UCLA proved costly.  Cal-Louisville should be a great 8/9 game.

5-12 Alert
12-seeded Utah St. is winning 52% of simulations over 5-seed Texas A&M. 

WEST REGION
Wither Arinze Onuaku?
The Syracuse big man was said to be fine before the seedings were announced, but now he is expected to miss at the opening game.  While as a top seed the Orange won’t need Onuaku against Vermont, a 2nd round game against Gonzaga or Florida State is much more difficult.  And given the lack of quality depth Syracuse plays with (essentially a 7-man team) the Orange become much more vulnerable with each passing round.  If Onuaku is reasonably healthy by the 2nd weekend though, I like them in the West.

Or why you win the games you’re supposed to win
Gonzaga lost three times in the WCC, and only one of those was to St. Mary’s.  By doing so they played the Bulldogs played themselves out of a shot to play in Spokane.  If they get by Florida State, the Orange await in round 2.

BYU riding high
BYU has the highest first round probability of any 7 seed at nearly 65%.  If the Cougars get by Kansas State in the 2nd round, watch out.  The West regional finals will be held in Salt Lake City, an unbelievable advantage for the hometown Cougs. 

Looking for Cinderella?
The traditional 5-12 upset could easily happen in this region with UTEP, led by Derrick Caracter, is favored (52%) to beat Butler.  Going further though, 13-seed Murray St. is actually favored even more than UTEP (52.6%) to win its first game over Vandy.  And that’s not a fluke either as the ‘Dores were overseeded and the Racers won 30 games and have lost only once since Christmas.

Utah Jazz - Mehmet Okur game-time decision. Andrei Kirilenko will get an MRI today.
Indiana Pacers - T.J. Ford out 7-10 days.Phildelphia 76ers - Marreese Speights has missed 4 straight games with very few updates on his knee injury. We consider him doubtful until he shows up again on the court.
Phoenix Suns - Leandro Barbosa will return Tuesday according to the Arizona Republic
Dallas Mavericks - Jason Terry will return Wednesday according to DallasBasketball.com

Chicago Bulls – Taj Gibson out tonight with plantar fasciitis
Atlanta Hawks– Maurice Evans doubtful

Twins closer extraordinaire Joe Nathan likely won’t be saving games this season. The righthander has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow, an injury that typically requires Tommy John’s surgery.  Minnesota will wait to make a final decision on surgery, but Nathan will probably miss the entire 2010 season.

With a healthy Joe Nathan the Twins would be sizable favorites in the AL Central with a projected record of 90-72 and a 68% of winning the division.  Since 2004, the year he became the full-time close in Minnesota, Nathan has piled up a major league best 246 saves.

HEALTHY JOE NATHAN

With Nathan expected to miss the season, the Twins would be forecasted to take a hit, but not a massive one.

JOE NATHAN OUT

IMPACT ON TWINS

The Twins would still by the favorites in the Central winning the division in 62% of simulations.  Their playoff odds would also be very solid at nearly 68%.  The loss of Nathan is forecasted to cost Minnesota between 1-2 wins which makes sense, even with an elite closer.  The Twins would need to replace essentially 70 innings, and have some decent in-house options. 

We project Jon Rauch to replace Nathan in the 9th inning role, and he is projection to do well.  Fantasy Scout gives him a projected 2010 line of 34 saves with an ERA just under 3.7 and a 1.35 WHIP.  Those numbers are right in-line with his career averages.  Matt Guerrier is also projected to get 6-8 saves.  Rauch has some experience closing doing so in Washington in 2008 when he had 17 saves with a 2.98 ERA in 48.1 innings.  He performed poorly in his stint in Arizona, but bounced back strongly after getting traded to Minnesota (1.72 ERA in 15.2 innings). 

The loss of a pitcher the caliber of Nathan is significant, but bullpens are built on the fly all the time in baseball.  The Twins are a solid team with options to close and should still be considered contenders for the postseason.

Much of the nation looks forward to picking brackets every March hoping to win a pool and finding the next Cinderella team.  Here are 10 quick tips to help you fill out your bracket.

1.  Advance No.1 seeds automatically two rounds to the Sweet 16.  The last top seed to fail to reach the second weekend was Kentucky in 2004 when the Wildcats lost to UAB by a point.  Kentucky will probably be a top seed again behind John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins.

2. Seeds are the biggest determinant of tournament success.  The top teams are given the higher seeds for a reason.  They have proven over the course of the season to be the best teams in the nation.

3. Because of number 2, don’t go crazy with the upset picks.  Pick a few lower seeded teams you like and go with them.  Don’t try and get every upset right by picking every 12 or 13 seed to win.  You won’t win your pool.

4. Twenty-two of the last 24 champions have come from the top four overall seeds.  There is a reason they are on the top lines.  They’re the best teams. 

5. As an extension to number 4, don’t pick a double-digit seed to reach the Final Four.  Stories like George Mason are great because they almost never happen.

6. Two of the top statistics related to performance in the tournament are victory margin and turnover margin. Good teams blow out bad ones, and take care of the basketball.

7. Style of play and match-ups can win teams games.  Look at how teams fared against fast and slow-paced teams, and what kind of defenses they might face down the line. If your favorite has a problem with turnovers and will play a pressing, trapping defense take that into account.

8. Guard play often dominates March, and often drives underdogs to upset wins in the early rounds.

9. The four factors most overall correlated to winning in basketball are: 1) shooting, 2) offensive rebounding, 3) turnovers and 4) free throws.  This relates to both the offense and defense side of the ball (i.e. creating turnovers and taking care of the basketball, getting to the line while keeping opponents off the line).  Even the best teams have weaknesses among these four factors meaning a bad match-up basic match-up can be spotted using these statistics.

10. College basketball is a notoriously fickle sport.  Anything can happen on a given night, and it usually does during the tournament.  Don’t stress too much about picking teams.  If you like a team, take them.  Luck obviously plays a role every March, just remember to have fun.

BONUS:  When trying to pick an upset, pick a team that does something extremely well like shoot from distance or is dominant on the boards.  The ability to dominate one aspect of the game can help overcome deficiencies in other areas.  To wit, Murray State doesn’t have great size, but the Racers ranked 8th in eFG% and when they do miss they crash the boards (39.5 ORB%, 12th best in the nation).  Old Dominion doesn’t shoot well from three-point range, but are the best rebounding team in the nation.

Everyone loves the new guy.  It’s especially true for back-up quarterbacks, and in baseball it’s true for hotshot prospects every spring.  Every year though, fantasy players jump a bit overboard looking for the next big thing and reach for prospects without defined roles, are too far from the majors, or simply not as good as their press clippings.  Here is a quick look at some rookies that could be interesting in fantasy this season.

Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta
If there is one rookie to own in fantasy this year, this is the guy.  Conventional wisdom would say Heyward would return to the minors at least to start the year, but this is not a conventional player.  Universally seen as the top position player prospect in baseball, Heyward is a freak of nature.  He is still just 20 years old, but stands 6’4’’ and is up to 235 lbs. He also has been crushing balls this spring drawing rave reviews from everyone, and leading to comparisons to Albert Pujols from opposing managers.  Currently AccuScore has a conservative projection of 50% playing time with close to a .300 average and 13 home runs.  If he wins a job out of spring, he should be the true breakout star fantasy owners are looking for.  With Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz, and Eric Hinske being his main competition, RF looks like the perfect spot for Heyward in 2010.

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay
Here is the classic case of a top prospect that fantasy owners should temper expectations for.  While viewed as a top 10 prospect, Jennings might not see a major league field this season.  Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have two OF spots locked up, and Matt Joyce, and Gabe Kapler are very serviceable.  Jennings isn’t draftable in all but the deepest mixed leagues (unless you’re in a keeper/dynasty league of course).

Scott Sizemore – 2B, Detroit
Sizemore is the likely starter at 2B, and playing time is the key to success for any prospect.  He is not flashy, but put up solid numbers in the minors hitting .297.  More importantly he had a career .383 OBP which could lead to a decent run total in Detroit.  Sizemore has average speed, but could get you around 15-20 stolen bases with a full season of work.  He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Brandon Wood – 3B, Anaheim
It’s probably now or never for Wood with the Angels. The loss of Chone Figgins leaves the 3B job to Wood, and we project him to hit .265 with solid power about 20 home runs. His problem has always been a long swing that leads to strikeouts, something he improved on last season. Wood is probably ready for a major league role, but I personally get the feeling the Angels don’t trust him and that Mike Scioscia flat-out doesn’t like him (as a player). For some reason, Scioscia seems to prefer Macier Izturis. A trade to another team would probably improve his fantasy outlook.

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati
Stubbs will probably face some competition for the CF job from Chris Dickerson, but he is likely to win a starting spot. We currently project Stubbs for a .277 average with 30 steals and more than 80 runs.  That is a useful fantasy player.  His does have a problem with strikeouts, and hit just .202 on the road in about 200 major-league at-bats last season. However, he is just 25 and will have time and opportunity this season.  He could be a nice late-round pick-up.

Tommy Manzella – SS, Houston
The fact that he will be the starting SS for the Astros should be an indictment on the entire franchise.  Manzella posted a career .321 OBP in the minors.  He is all glove and no-hit, somebody you don’t want to own in fantasy.

Michael Brantley – OF, Cleveland
The signing of Russell Branyan might leave Brantley without a job pushing Matt LaPorta to LF. Still, Brantley is a name to remember for later in the year.  He hit .313 during a September call-up, and is a career .300 avg / .383 OBP hitter in the minors with plus speed.  With a full season of work he could hit for a solid average with 40 steals and good run totals (but without much power).

New Jersey Nets – Yi Jianlian will be re-evaluated in a week. Could easily be out longer than that.
Dallas Mavericks – Brendan Haywood “might” be back today. My guess is he's less than 50/50 to play. Officially he’s questionable.
New York Knicks – Tracy McGrady scheduled to play tonight.
New Orleans Hornets – Peja Stojakovic out minimum 2 weeks with a groin injury.
Minnesota Timberwolves – Wayne Ellington still hasn’t returned to practice. His ankle sprain is reportedly severe.
Denver – Kenyon Martin is unlikely to return in the regular season.

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS

Conference tournaments are well underway with teams locking up bids daily. The true “power” conferences are tipping off across the country as well starting with the Big East on Tuesday. To properly prepare to maximize profits we have put together a quick review of how AccuScore has performed picking spreads and totals in key conferences. The full review is available to Winner’s Edge Members in the Daily Line Report, but here are a few highlights:

POINT SPREADS
These are some of the top conference records. Only the Ivy League does not hold a season-ending conference tournament.

Our record for the Big East is important because of the size of the league. There are more games to be played in the league, all at a semi-neutral site in Madison Square Garden. While Cornell has already locked up the Ivy League bid, it is important to note the quality of the Big Red. Given the right draw, Cornell could easily upset a team in the first round. That chance for an upset could be a big-time profit opportunity.

OVER/UNDERS OR TOTALS
This season, AccuScore Over/Under picks have performed slightly better than point spreads. Below are some highlighted conferences with good records on totals. AccuScore also has a 75-46, 62% record on totals in neutral court games where most conference tournaments will be held. Always be careful to note however when teams play at “semi-neutral” sites that are close to home campuses, i.e. UCLA at Staples Center. While the impact is not the same as a true homecourt, the lack of need for travel and larger presence of home fans still matters.