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SEC Championship Alabama vs Florida Projection
Monday, 12 October 2009 18:18

If things go as expected Florida and Alabama should meet in the SEC Championship Game and many will consider this the “real” National Championship. Last season the Gators won 31-20 coming from behind with the last 14 points of the game. AccuScore ran simulations of the 2009 SEC Championship Game based on the data we have so far after Week 6.

FLORIDA BY THE SLIMMEST MARGIN

In 10,000 simulations the two teams are virtually inseparable, although Florida is getting the slight edge over Alabama winning 51 percent of the simulations by an average of just 0.3 points. Florida is averaging more passing yards than Alabama, but Alabama is having more success running the ball. Florida has a 0.01 edge in total offensive touchdowns 2.41 to 2.40. In games this close turnover margin is typically the deciding factor and this is where Florida is getting its edge. The Florida defense is recovering 1.82 Alabama turnovers vs 1.47 for Alabama’s defense.

ALABAMA vs FLORIDA ALA FLA
Winning Percentage 49% 51%
Average Sim Score 20.1 20.4
Passing Yards 142 172
Passing Touchdowns 0.74 1.39
Rushing Yards 158 110
Rushing Touchdowns 1.66 1.02
Turnovers (More Better) 1.47 1.82

ALABAMA CAN RUN ON FLORIDA

Both teams dominate teams running the ball while also have dominating run defenses. In simulations Alabama, behind a strong effort from Mark Ingram, has more success running the ball. Alabama is rushing for 3.67 yards per carry and over 150 yards vs just 110 yards on 2.82 yards per carry for Florida. Alabama’s defense is expected to stop Florida from getting many explosive runs while also limiting Tim Tebow to just short bruising 2 yard pickups.

FLORIDA RUSH YARDS YPC TD ALABAMA RUSH YARDS YPC TD
Tim Tebow 18 33 1.83 0.35 Mark Ingram 23 90 3.91 0.93
Jeffery Demps 8 30 3.75 0.29 Trent Richardson 13 48 3.69 0.50
Chris Rainey 7 27 3.86 0.22 Roy Upchurch 3 12 4.00 0.15
Emmanuel Moody 6 20 3.33 0.16 Greg McElroy 4 8 2.00 0.08
FLORIDA TOTAL 39 110 2.82 1.02 ALABAMA TOTAL 43 158 3.67 1.66

TIM TEBOW OUTPLAYS GREG MCELROY

Tebow may not be able to run over the Alabama defense, but he showed last year that it can be nearly impossible to stop Tebow from hurting you in both the running and passing game. Last year Tebow passed for 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. In 2009 simulations Tebow is completing a higher percentage than Alabama’s Greg McElroy while also having a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. McElroy is averaging 1 interception which is actually pretty good against the Florida defense, but McElroy’s +0.37 more INTs than Tebow is the source of Florida’s turnover margin advantage and ultimate overall 51% edge.

If McElroy throws no interceptions and can complete over 50 percent of his passes then Alabama is favored, but if he makes any mistakes or completes under 50 percent then Florida should repeat as SEC Champions.

PASSING CMP ATT % YARDS TD INT
Tim Tebow 13 23 56.5% 172 1.39 0.63
Greg McElroy 14 26 53.8% 142 0.74 1.00