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Feb 01
2008

NFL System: Super Bowl

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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NEW ENGLAND (-12) vs NY GIANTS:  NEW ENGLAND 6-2

It only seems fitting that I write this while I run my franchise on Madden.  You see, I don't really play the games in Madden, I just simulate them all, act as the GM of the team, and try to build a dynasty.  Eventually things get to the point where my team is a guarantee to make it to the Super Bowl, and I shoot for bigger things like an undefeated season.  When it comes to the point where my team goes undefeated I usually move on to a new team.  Afterall, how unrealistic is it that a team

Jan 15
2008

NFL System: Conference Playoff Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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In my opinion, last weekend was one of the best playoff weekends in recent history.  You had the snow in Green Bay, a relatively close game in New England, then two upsets on Sunday.  The best part is that we are left with four teams who I would accept in the finals.  There are no 8-8 teams that bring up the complaints of "Should an 8-8 team be considered the champions?"  There are no teams that just got hot the last few weeks of the season and barely made it in to the playoffs.  All four of these teams are solid, which makes this coming weekend another weekend

Jan 07
2008

NFL System: Divisional Playoff Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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The system was very successful last year in the divisional round of the playoffs.  I remember because I was in Australia at the time.  The hotel I was staying at had a sportsbook, which wasn't uncommon, as there were sportsbooks on every street corner.  I won almost every bet, including small prop bets like "First score will be a field goal" and "Team X to win by X points" bets.  The end result was that the hotel had to dig in to their own safe to pay me out, and I celebrated with a Louis Vuitton tie and tickets to the Australian Open.

That

Jan 02
2008

NFL System: Wild Card Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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I will have more on these games in a later article.  For now, here are some quick thoughts on the wild card games.

WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE (-3.5):  WASHINGTON 5-3

I think the key to this game will be how Seattle does with the run on both sides of the ball.  If they can stop Clinton Portis they will have an easier time with the Redskins offense.  However, they need a solid effort from their running game, which has been off and on all season.  I think this game will be close.  I like Washington to cover, and wouldn't be surprised if they won this game.

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Dec 29
2007

NFL System: Week 17 Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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I find the whole concept of "handicapping" amusing, especially in regards to the NFL.  I've never really cared about being a good "handicapper".  Sure, my system has worked out pretty well, but that was one time research.  The benefit of my system is that I don't have to sit and break down all of the games each week.  I can just plug the stats in to the spread sheet, and 30 minutes later I've got a pick.  I've said this before, I am no different than all of you.  I work 40 hours a week, spend time with my wife at home, and watch

Dec 24
2007

NFL System: Monday Night Game

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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DENVER @ SAN DIEGO (-8.5): SAN DIEGO 7-1

The roles for these two teams are pretty much defined.  Denver's season is over.  They have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.  They allow one of the highest point totals in the league.  San Diego is currently in the number three seed, with no chance of going up, but a risk of falling back.  LaDanian Tomlinson is one of the best running backs in the league, and is on fire coming in to this game, running for 339 yards on 64 carries, an amazing 5.3 yards per carry.  Let's do a

Dec 20
2007

NFL System: Week 16 Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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It was Christmas time last year that the system had an amazing week. Being lazy at the moment I am going to say it was like 14-2, because I don't want to sort through the thread to confirm this. I was hoping for a week full of 6-2 and 5-3 games, since those are winning at a combined 67% rate. However, this week is full of 7-1 and 8-0 games, which did well last season when betting against the 8-0 teams, but is doing better this season when betting on the system picks. It's going to take some work, but my goal is to get close to that 14-2 record from last Christmas. Check out the

Dec 12
2007

NFL System: Week 15 Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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I was driving home from work last night, listening to the Bobby Petrino press conference.  I was a little surprised to see that he had taken the Arkansas position, but it wasn't a total shocker.  The total shocker was listening to callers and e-mailers blasting Petrino for leaving Atlanta so suddenly, not even completing a year.

I am here to support you, Bobby Petrino.

First of all, the NFL coaching position is flat out grueling.  NFL coaches have more games to plan for, they talk to the media more, and the level of their opponents is much higher, which means

Dec 11
2007

NFL System Power Rankings

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionPower RankingsNFL SystemNFL Power RankingsNFL

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My NFL system is a good method for determining the winner of games, as well as what team will cover the spread. It can also be used as a power ranking system, which is something that I do every week. I take in to consideration the following categories:

-Interceptions thrown
-Sacks Allowed
-Time of Possession
-3rd Down Percentage on offense and defense (non-system stats)
-Net points
-Turnover ratio
-Net Rushing yards

The end result looks pretty close to what you would expect, with a few surprises thrown in there, depending on what opinions you have





Dec 06
2007

NFL System: Week 14 Projections

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsScorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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A few years ago I was a different type of fan.  I've always been a Steelers fan, but I'm not as serious anymore.  Sure, I like when the Steelers win, and I'm disappointed when they lose, but only to a certain extent.  I used to be brought to tears when the Steelers lost in the playoffs.  If they won a game, it would make my week.  If they lost, Monday and Tuesday would be dark days.  I knew their schedule, knew their entire roster, long snapper included, and thought that they could beat anyone, regardless of who that anyone was.

Maybe some things don't change.  While the Steelers don't make or break my week anymore, I still have faith in them to be an elite team.  That includes this weekend against New England.  I have said before that I think the Steelers are the number two team in the league.  Maybe that's a homer call.  Maybe that's fact.   I think the Steelers have the best shot at beating the Patriots.

Both teams play a similar style of football.  They build through the draft, acquiring system players.  They both rely on strong offensive lines.  They both rely on a good front seven that can apply pressure to the quarterback.  They both have top of the line strong safeties who can do anything on the field.  They both neglect the cornerback spot, but somehow manage to find players who can produce.

In the last few weeks the Patriots have struggled because teams are running the ball on them, and putting good coverage on Moss and Welker, while applying pressure to Brady.  Yeah, that doesn't sound easy to me either.  However, I think the Steelers are better than the Ravens and Eagles in all of these departments.  Willie Parker has struggled, but if he makes it past the Patriots' defensive line he's going for a long run.  Troy Polamalu is the best safety in the league.  That's not a homer call, that's just fact.  You can give me Ed Reed all you want, but in games without his top corner backs, Ed Reed hasn't been the highlight reel that he is when McAllister is in the lineup.  Polamalu can keep tight coverage on Welker, he can intercept a pass going to a double covered Randy Moss, and he can apply solid pressure on Tom Brady.  So call me crazy, but I think Parker and Polamalu will be the difference makers in the Steelers win over the Patriots.

CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON (-3): CHICAGO 6-2

The Bears defense hasn't been the lights out unit we expected, but they have managed to get the job done. That can be said for the entire Chicago team. They've got Rex Grossman

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