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Oklahoma Sooners Big 12 Chances
Thursday, 10 September 2009 22:10

With Jermaine Gresham out for the season and Sam Bradford is out for a month, AccuScore re-ran the 2009 simulations. In addition to these key injuries we also factored in the poor performance from the rest of the team in week 1, especially on the offensive line.

In the preseason we had Oklahoma winning nearly 11 wins per simulation with a 43.6% chance of winning the Big 12 South. Now they are 3rd place in the division and they are averaging just 7 wins.

OKLAHOMA WIN DIV WINS LOSS WIN%
Pre-Season 43.6% 10.9 1.2 89.5%
After Week 1 19.6% 7.2 4.8 50.2%
DIFFERENCE -24.0% -3.7 +3.7 -39.4%

Texas is now the clear favorite in the Big 12 South with Oklahoma State with the 2nd best shot.

PRE-SEASON BIG 12 SOUTH WIN%
Oklahoma 43.6%
Texas 37.6%
Oklahoma State 13.6%
Baylor 2.9%
Texas Tech 2.3%
Texas A&M 0.0%

 

BIG 12 SOUTH NOW WIN%
Texas 47.9%
Oklahoma State 25.4%
Oklahoma 19.6%
Baylor 4.9%
Texas Tech 2.2%
Texas A&M 0.0%

Sam Bradford may be back for the game against Texas, but even with him at QB Oklahoma is now winning just 32 percent of simulations (down from 47 percent in pre-season simulations).

OK vs TEXAS OK TEX
Pre-Season 47% 53%
After Week 1 32% 68%