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I’ve seen many people discounting the Dodgers and already penciling in the Cardinals into the World Series. Doing so does a complete disservice to the rest of the National League. The Dodgers have homefield as a result of the league’s best record, and the best run differential (+169 or 79 more than St. Louis). The love for the Cardinals stems from their two Cy Young caliber starters in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, and the best hitter in the game Albert Pujols.

The simulations are based on the following pitching match-ups:

Game 1: Carpenter vs. Wolf

Game 2: Wainwright vs. Kershaw

Game 3: Piniero vs. Padilla

Game 4: Lohse vs. Billingsley

Game 5: Carpenter vs. Wolf

The projections for this series actually back-up the general belief that the Cardinals are the big favorites, but there are a few extenuating circumstances. L.A. was dealt a huge blow when it was learned that Hiroki Kuroda would not be available (possibly for the entire playoffs) to pitch Game 3. His presence compared to Padilla in St. Louis actually would have swung Game 3 11% with the Dodgers winning 56% of the time. Needless to say his injury is a massive loss.

The thing that stands out the most in these projections is the advantage provided by both Carpenter and Wainwright on the road (1, 2, and 5). Carpenter gives the Cardinals a 6% edge in both Games 1 and 5 against Wolf. Wainwright provides a big edge against Kershaw in Game 2, but Kershaw does have the talent to match zeros with him on the scoreboard. I see that second outing as the pivotal game. Chad Billingsley has had his share of problems late in the season, but he should provide the Dodgers an edge over either Lohse or Smoltz for the Cardinals. The use of Vicente Padilla in the third contest is questionable, and magnifies the loss of Kuroda even further.

Another issue to pay attention to is the management, or mis-management, of the bullpen and lineups. It has already been announced that Ronnie Belliard will start at 2B for the Dodgers in Game 1. While Belliard has been hot at the plate over the past few weeks, his underlying stats indicate he is an inferior hitter as well as fielder to Orlando Hudson. Joe Torre is not maximizing his talent by playing Belliard.

The Cardinals will have to deal with questions in the rotation and bullpen. Either Kyle Lohse or John Smoltz will likely start Game 4. Both players will be available out of the bullpen in Los Angeles. Their presence as relievers could be very beneficial as closer Ryan Franklin has struggled after being the beneficiary of lots of good luck in the first half. The other middle relievers are unproven and a veteran like Smoltz could be key.