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Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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It’s the championship week for most fantasy leagues this week, meaning that the decisions you make could either win you a championship, or make you wonder why you ever started Player A over Player B, when Player B would have given you a win.  Aside from the potential fantasy football championship, there are other factors to consider for week sixteen.  The biggest one of all is the weather front that is moving in to some cities this week.

In one of my leagues I have Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner as my quarterbacks.  Both are forecasted to be towards the bottom of the top 12 this week in AccuScore simulations, and both face bad weather.  Arizona will be in New England, where the wind will be 18 miles per hour, the temperature will be in the 30s, and there will be a 70 percent chance of a wintery mix.  Green Bay will be in Chicago, where they will have 16 MPH winds, and a high of 12 degrees.  I had to put a sweater on just thinking about that.

Then there’s Matt Schaub.  Schaub plays the Oakland Raiders this week, with a high of 51 degrees, which sounds like summer time compared to the other two games, and only a 30 percent chance of rain.  Schaub is also forecasted for just 0.4 points less than Warner, making it a toss up.

Warner has been much better at home than on the road, throwing for 13 touchdowns in each situation, but throwing for nine interceptions on the road, compared to four at home.  He also has three touchdowns and eleven interceptions in his career when the temperature is between 21 and 40 degrees.  Rodgers isn’t bad in the cold, throwing seven touchdowns and four interceptions when the temperature is under 40 degrees.  Rodgers does struggle a bit on the road, throwing for 12 touchdowns both home and away, but four interceptions at home compared to nine on the road.

Then there’s Matt Schaub.  In the last two weeks Schaub has returned to throw for 698 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.  He also plays an Oakland defense that has given up seven touchdowns with just one interception in their last two games.  He also doesn’t have the weather concerns that we are seeing with Warner and Rodgers.  All three are forecasted for about the same amount of points, but when you factor in the weather, and the road issues for Warner and Rodgers, Schaub becomes my play this week.  So thank you to Warner and Rodgers for getting me here, but I have no problem handing the ball to Schaub to win the title.

The Truth About Week Sixteen

AccuScore forecasted points in parenthesis

- Drew Brees (20.9) is the only quarterback that is better than Matt Cassel (19.5) this week.

-I did my rundown on Matt Schaub (14.1) above, but I like him as one of the top quarterbacks this week, which is a bump over the number 12 ranking he has in AccuScore simulations.

-Aside from Schaub, Jeff Garcia (14.4), Tyler Thigpen (14.4), and Jason Campbell (14.1) are sleeper options in the top 12 this week.

-Although he’s ranked as the number 15 quarterback option this week, I don’t trust Tarvaris Jackson (13.5) to come anywhere close to his numbers from last week.

-Quarterbacks to avoid this week: Chad Pennington (13), Brett Favre (12.3), Matt Ryan (12.2), Ben Roethlisberger (11.1), and Eli Manning (9.9).

-With Reggie Bush on the IR, Pierre Thomas (22.2) becomes a monster option this week against the Lions.

-Clinton Portis (15.1) has had his problems, but he will bounce back this week in an important game against the Eagles, running for 99 yards with a touchdown in 63 percent of AccuScore simulations.

-Kevin Smith (17.7) and Matt Forte (17.1) were both taken in most leagues around the sixth round, and both players are top options this week.  I’m starting Smith over Chris Johnson (10.1) in one league.

-Sleeper running backs this week that are ranked in AccuScore’s top 24: Dominic Rhodes (11.5), Justin Fargas (10), Sammy Morris (9.8), Cedric Benson (9.8)

-Running backs to avoid this week: Michael Turner (9.7), Tatum Bell (9.2), Ryan Grant (8.9), Willie Parker (8.8), Marion Barber (7.2), Joseph Addai (6.7), Jonathan Stewart (6.6), LenDale White (6.3), and Tim Hightower (4.7).

-Anquan Boldin (10.6) and Larry Fitzgerald (10.1) are both top options this week, but due to the weather concerns I’m going to say that Antonio Bryant (10.1) and Roddy White (10.3) will combine for more points than the Arizona duo.

-Marques Colston (10) has been a huge disappointment this year, but if you somehow made it to the championship game with him that second round pick will pay off.  He is the ninth ranked receiver in AccuScore simulations, with a huge matchup against the Lions.

-Sleeper wide receivers to start this week: Bryant Johnson (6.9), Ted Ginn Jr (6.7), and Vincent Jackson (6.6).

-Wide receivers to avoid this week: Chad Johnson (5.6), Santonio Holmes (5.5), and Kevin Curtis (5.3).

-Dallas Clark (7.9), Antonio Gates (6.6), Tony Gonzalez (7.8), and John Carlson (7) are the tight ends that have the best chance of scoring a touchdown this week.

-Sleeper tight ends in AccuScore’s top 12 this week: John Carlson, Zach Miller (6.6), Dustin Keller (6.1), and Kevin Boss (5).

-Tight ends to avoid this week: Heath Miller (4.8) and Tony Scheffler (4.4).

-The following tight ends get a boost in PPR leagues this week (all point totals assume one point per reception): John Carlson (11.5), Zach Miller (11), Owen Daniels (9.4), Dustin Keller (10), and Jerramy Stevens (8.5).

-A word of caution for the top ranked Tennessee defense (17.3): Last year they allowed a combined total of 97 points in the three games that Albert Haynesworth missed.  They’re missing Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch this week, which will really hurt them in what could be a battle for home field advantage in the AFC against Pittsburgh.

-Despite their outbreak last week, I’m going against the Cincinnati Bengals offense and starting Cleveland’s defense (13.7).  Last time the two teams met, Cleveland recorded five turnovers and three sacks, allowing just 12 points.

-Top defensive options to avoid this week: Arizona (8.1) and Carolina (8.7).