Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Cowboys seem to be back on track with a healthy Tony Romo under center.  Dallas went 4-2 to start the season, then went 1-2 while Romo was out with an injury, only to win two straight in Romo’s return to the team the past two weeks.  Dallas had a commanding victory last week against the 49ers, winning 35-22 with Romo throwing for 341 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

AccuScore has simulated Thursday’s contest against the Seahawks 10,000 times to find that the results will be similar to Sunday’s game against the 49ers.  Dallas is winning 81.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 28-16.  Romo is leading the team with 251 passing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.  Marion Barber is carrying the ball 23 times for 111 yards and a touchdown.  Terrell Owens and Jason Witten are combining for nine catches, 134 yards, and a touchdown.  The Cowboys’ defense is doing their part, recording three sacks and two turnovers.

Seattle has struggled for the majority of this season, with Matt Hasselbeck either injured, or just putting up one poor performance after another.  Hasselbeck’s only solid performance came in week three against the Rams.  This week will be another less than impressive outing, as Hasselbeck is completing 54.2 percent of his passes for 209 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.  Julius Jones and Maurice Morris are being held to 61 yards on 18 carries.  Seattle’s defense is only managing one sack on Tony Romo, and is forcing two turnovers.

Pulling the Upset

The Cowboys are dominating the Seahawks in simulations, recording a big win in 56.3 percent of AccuScore simulations.  In order for Seattle to have a shot at winning, they need to manage to contain the Cowboys’ offense, which is a very hard task.  In baseline simulations the Seahawks are forcing two turnovers, but are getting torched by Romo, while Marion Barber is running all over them.

Seattle improves their chances of winning by 13.4 percentage points when forcing an extra turnover in custom simulations.  In this scenario the Cowboys are winning by less than a touchdown.  Seattle improves their chances of winning by 15.4 percentage points when holding Marion Barber to under 90 rushing yards.  In this scenario, Tony Romo is throwing for 15 percent more interceptions, and seeing a ten percent spike in the amount of sacks taken.  When combining both of the above scenarios, Seattle is dead even with Dallas in custom AccuScore simulations.

Seattle could also win by stepping up their own running game.  In custom AccuScore simulations where Julius Jones and Maurice Morris combine for over 100 yards, Seattle is winning 50.3 percent of the time.  Even when they are dominating the running game, or containing the Cowboys’ rushing offense, Seattle has little chance of beating Dallas on Thursday.