Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Philadelphia Eagles will go with Donovan McNabb on Thursday, less than a week after benching their star quarterback in favor of their quarterback of the future, Kevin Kolb.  AccuScore has simulated Thursday’s game against the Cardinals 10,000 times, and the Eagles are winning 64.8 percent of simulations with McNabb under center.  Philadelphia is winning the average simulation by a score of 27-22.

McNabb is throwing for 285 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, a big turnaround from last week’s performance.  Brian Westbrook is running for 93 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, while adding 38 receiving yards on five catches.  DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis are combining for seven catches and 109 receiving yards.  The Eagles’ defense is supporting the efforts of the offense by sacking Kurt Warner twice and forcing two turnovers.

The Cardinals aren’t going down easily.  Kurt Warner is throwing for 281 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.  Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington are combining for 71 yards on 19 carries.  The powerful receiving duo of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are combining for 13 catches, 184 yards and a touchdown.  Arizona’s defense is sacking McNabb twice, and forcing two Philadelphia turnovers.

McNabb or Kolb?

The Eagles threw Kevin Kolb in against the Ravens last week, only to see Kolb complete just ten of his 23 passes for 73 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.  Eagles’ coach Andy Reid announced that McNabb would be the starter, but a full quarterback controversy is in effect.  That raises the question as to who would give the Eagles a better chance of winning this game.

Custom AccuScore simulations show that McNabb is the best choice against the Cardinals.  The Eagles are winning 64.8 percent of baseline simulations with McNabb as the quarterback.  In custom simulations with Kevin Kolb as the quarterback, Philadelphia is winning just 44.8 percent of AccuScore simulations, a 20 percent drop from McNabb.  Kolb is throwing for 266 yards, and is leading the Eagles offense to one additional turnover as the starter.  For now it seems that Donovan McNabb is the best choice in Philadelphia.

How Arizona can win

The Cardinals are a team that has surprised a lot of people.  The talent has been there, with Fitzgerald and Boldin providing arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league, while Kurt Warner gives them a reliable quarterback, with the ability to make the best of their offense.  Last week the Cardinals lost to the New York Giants, mostly due to a poor running game, despite a successful passing game.  This week we are seeing the same outcome in baseline AccuScore simulations, with Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington being held to just 71 rushing yards.

In custom AccuScore simulations where Hightower and Arrington combine for more than 100 rushing yards, the Cardinals are winning 71 percent of the time, with an average score of 30-23.  Kurt Warner is seeing his interceptions drop by 25 percentage points in this scenario, while the Eagles are recording 40 percent fewer sacks.  The Cardinals passing game will keep them in this contest, but if they want to win, the running game needs to be effective.