Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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AccuScore went 3-1 predicting game winners in the Wild Card round of the NFL season.  That brings the overall record to 174-86-1 on the season for straight game winners.  San Diego was the only team that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in the Wild Card round.  To find out how the Chargers overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Chargers take the advantage over Colts

AccuScore had the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers playing a close contest, with the Colts as the slight favorites, winning 51.8 percent of simulations by an average score of 24-23.  The Chargers led at the half, but went down by a field goal on a bomb to Reggie Wayne in the third quarter, only to tie it up and send the game to overtime with a late field goal in the fourth.  A 22 yard touchdown run by Darren Sproles helped cap off a 75 yard drive in overtime for a 23-17 Chargers victory.

A big credit for this win has to go to the Chargers running game, especially Darren Sproles for stepping up to replace the injured LaDainian Tomlinson.  Tomlinson and Sproles were forecasted to run for 124 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.  Tomlinson played in a limited role, only receiving five carries on Saturday, but running for 25 yards and a touchdown.  Sproles added 105 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries, including the game winner.  In custom AccuScore simulations where the Chargers running backs put up this type of performance, San Diego had a sizeable advantage, winning 84.9 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 37-23.

Of course the running game certainly helped to hide the mistakes made by the Chargers on offense.  Philip Rivers only threw for 217 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception, despite being forecasted for 247 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.  San Diego saw their chances of winning drop 25.9 percentage points when Rivers played this poorly.  Darren Sproles also had a costly fumble that went through the end zone for a touchback, taking potential points away from the Chargers right after Indianapolis took the lead.  In the end, Sproles made up for the mistake with his game winning touchdown, helping to give the Chargers the edge in this game.