Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Every week AccuScore simulates each NFL game 10,000 times to discover the probability of each team winning their contest.  Each week I look at those simulations and find certain strategies or depth chart issues that I feel need to be altered in order to give the team in question a better chance to win.  The new scenarios are run through the AccuScore super computer 10,000 times, with the new simulation results illustrating the benefit of my new game plan.  With Ben Roethlisberger struggling the last few weeks, and Byron Leftwich excelling in his limited playing time in Pittsburgh, I decided to take a look and see which quarterback would give the Steelers a better chance of winning.

Roethlisberger or Leftwich

In the last three weeks, Ben Roethlisberger has been horrible as the Steelers’ quarterback, completing just 54.5 percent of his passes, averaging 174 passing yards per game, and throwing for just one touchdown and eight interceptions.  The Steelers are 1-2 during this stretch.  You could attribute some of this to the offensive line, as Roethlisberger has been sacked ten times over this stretch, and hurried on almost every play.  However, that wouldn’t explain the limited success of Byron Leftwich.

Leftwich entered the November 3^rd game against the Redskins in the second half, completing seven of ten passes for 129 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.  Roethlisberger completed five of 17 passes in the first half for 50 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception, giving the Steelers a 10-6 lead.  Leftwich helped the Steelers shut down the Redskins in the second half 13-0, leading the team to a 23-6 win with the exact same team as Roethlisberger had in the first half.

The difference in play, combined with another poor game from Roethlisberger last week, which led to a loss against the Colts, brings up the question of whether Leftwich would be an upgrade over Big Ben.

The Steelers are winning 56.5 percent of baseline AccuScore simulations against the San Diego Chargers this week, by an average score of 23-21.  Roethlisberger is throwing for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.  Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore are combining for 99 yards, with a touchdown in half of simulations.  The Chargers defense is sacking Roethlisberger three times, and forcing two Steelers turnovers.

In custom AccuScore simulations with Leftwich as the Steelers’ quarterback, Pittsburgh is winning 56.1 percent of simulations by an average score of 21-20.  Leftwich is putting up almost identical stats to Roethlisberger.  The biggest difference is that the Chargers are seeing 15 percent fewer turnovers, thanks to fewer interceptions by Leftwich.  The Steelers don’t see a big drop in their odds of winning, but do see the margin of victory drop to just one point.

While Roethlisberger has been horrible the last few weeks, he still gives the Steelers the best chance of winning.  Leftwich did well in the second half against the Redskins, but it is important to consider the sample size when judging that performance against Roethlisberger’s four and a half years in Pittsburgh.  You don’t bench a guy who has completed 62.8 percent of his career passes, and thrown for 94 touchdowns and 65 interceptions, all due to three bad weeks.  The bigger concern in Pittsburgh is the offensive line problems.  Roethlisberger has been sacked 28 times in nine games.  The one game where he wasn’t sacked, he completed 17 of 28 passes for 216 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and the Steelers rolled over the Bengals 38-10.

In custom simulations against the Chargers, the Steelers are winning 70.7 percent of simulations by an average score of 25-19 when the Pittsburgh offensive line cuts San Diego’s sacks from three to two.  The Steelers are winning 79 percent of custom simulations by an average score of 27-18 when the Chargers go without a sack.  In those simulations, Roethlisberger sees a 21 percent decrease in interceptions thrown.

The blame for the 1-2 performance over the last three weeks has been placed on Ben Roethlisberger.  The blame should be placed on the offensive line of the Steelers, as Roethlisberger is the quarterback that gives the Steelers the best chance of winning.

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