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FEATURED FANTASY FOOTBALL 2010 ARTICLE

Fantasy NFL - Strength Of Schedule

NFL 2010 Season Forecast	...Read Whole Article

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

I would guess that 99% of fantasy players and fantasy forecasting services rely on last year’s statistics to project how a player will perform in the upcoming season. At AccuScore, perhaps the second biggest factor in forecasting player performance is strength of schedule. All you have to do is watch the Detroit Lions or St. Louis Rams defense for 5 minutes and you’ll realize that even the most mediocre Quarterback can have 250 yards and 2 touchdowns if he’s lucky enough to play one of these teams.

As good as Matt Ryan may have been as a rookie, the fact is his numbers were seriously inflated because he played the 4th easiest schedule based on opponent average winning percentage in 2008. The NFC South had a couple RBs who had phenomenal 2008 seasons – Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams and Atlanta’s Michael Turner. While AccuScore expects good years from both of these players in 2009, you need to be aware that they benefited mightily playing in the NFC South in 2008. Using AccuScore’s defensive power ratings, the NFC South had 4 of the 5 easiest schedules in terms of the quality of opposing run defenses in 2008. However, in 2009, the schedule is much tougher and the opposing defenses that Atlanta and Carolina face are 2 of the 4 toughest.

The table below has a recap of each team’s average opponent winning percentage in 2008 and 2009 (using 2008 winning percentages). We also showed opponent’s average power rating for 2008 opponents against the run and against the pass. Team power ratings are based on multiple key simulation statistics and each team is rated on a 0% (weakest) to 100% (strongest) scale. For example, Atlanta’s 2008 opponents won 47% of their games. Their 2009 opponents won 59% of their games in 2008. Atlanta’s opponents were rated 48% against the run and 47% against the pass. Their 2009 opponents are much better at 63% against the run and 55% against the pass. This improved opponent quality is not surprising considering the NFC South has to play the NFC East and AFC East this year.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH	OPP WIN%		OPP RUN DEFENSE		OPP PASS DEFENSE
TEAM	2008	2009	2008	2009	2008	2009
ARIZONA CARDINALS	53%	44%	57%	51%	45%	42%
ATLANTA FALCONS	47%	59%	48%	63%	47%	55%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	56%	44%	62%	53%	60%	48%
BUFFALO BILLS	45%	57%	52%	59%	38%	48%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	49%	59%	49%	62%	45%	54%
CHICAGO BEARS	48%	41%	50%	54%	48%	48%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	55%	46%	68%	58%	64%	54%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	57%	45%	67%	59%	61%	51%
DALLAS COWBOYS	50%	52%	65%	55%	61%	51%
DENVER BRONCOS	46%	48%	50%	58%	43%	53%
DETROIT LIONS	56%	47%	61%	64%	54%	55%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	50%	43%	54%	58%	42%	46%
HOUSTON TEXANS	52%	50%	62%	57%	58%	46%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	50%	51%	62%	57%	51%	44%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	54%	52%	57%	55%	54%	45%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	54%	48%	51%	55%	43%	50%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	47%	59%	52%	62%	38%	48%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	51%	42%	52%	54%	48%	49%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	48%	59%	53%	59%	42%	50%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	50%	56%	49%	55%	44%	50%
NEW YORK GIANTS	51%	53%	64%	56%	55%	49%
NEW YORK JETS	47%	57%	52%	56%	40%	50%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	52%	48%	51%	56%	39%	44%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	53%	54%	63%	54%	54%	49%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	53%	43%	65%	55%	57%	51%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	54%	48%	47%	53%	46%	55%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	45%	44%	54%	52%	42%	41%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	50%	46%	58%	52%	51%	46%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	53%	46%	62%	57%	44%	41%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	48%	58%	46%	58%	39%	50%
TENNESSEE TITANS	47%	51%	56%	57%	48%	42%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	48%	49%	60%	49%	54%	47%

In order to evaluate Team Defenses for your fantasy draft you will want to consider similar data as above, only from an opposing offense’s perspective. It’s a scary thought, but the #1 Pittsburgh Steelers defense should be just as dominant or even more statistically dominant this year. Their opponents’ average winning percentage and offensive power ratings are considerably lower in 2009 than they were in 2008.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH	OPP WIN%		OPP RUN OFFENSE		OPP PASS OFFENSE
TEAM	2008	2009	2008	2009	2008	2009
ARIZONA CARDINALS	53%	44%	44%	35%	43%	43%
ATLANTA FALCONS	47%	59%	42%	51%	55%	60%
BALTIMORE RAVENS	56%	44%	34%	31%	47%	44%
BUFFALO BILLS	45%	57%	43%	53%	51%	59%
CAROLINA PANTHERS	49%	59%	43%	49%	63%	66%
CHICAGO BEARS	48%	41%	39%	28%	53%	40%
CINCINNATI BENGALS	55%	46%	42%	38%	48%	42%
CLEVELAND BROWNS	57%	45%	38%	34%	53%	45%
DALLAS COWBOYS	50%	52%	36%	52%	50%	63%
DENVER BRONCOS	46%	48%	49%	42%	55%	53%
DETROIT LIONS	56%	47%	42%	29%	59%	47%
GREEN BAY PACKERS	50%	43%	39%	25%	50%	36%
HOUSTON TEXANS	52%	50%	35%	36%	51%	54%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	50%	51%	38%	41%	48%	53%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	54%	52%	34%	37%	52%	55%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	54%	48%	50%	40%	61%	53%
MIAMI DOLPHINS	47%	59%	43%	50%	49%	60%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	51%	42%	39%	30%	61%	41%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	48%	59%	37%	50%	55%	61%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	50%	56%	47%	54%	53%	53%
NEW YORK GIANTS	51%	53%	33%	44%	44%	62%
NEW YORK JETS	47%	57%	41%	48%	54%	61%
OAKLAND RAIDERS	52%	48%	52%	43%	63%	54%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	53%	54%	38%	51%	48%	60%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	53%	43%	38%	36%	50%	42%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	54%	48%	51%	46%	58%	50%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	45%	44%	37%	29%	54%	53%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	50%	46%	35%	24%	55%	51%
ST. LOUIS RAMS	53%	46%	39%	27%	56%	57%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	48%	58%	48%	57%	56%	62%
TENNESSEE TITANS	47%	51%	31%	31%	48%	59%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	48%	49%	32%	47%	46%	55%