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FEATURED FANTASY FOOTBALL 2010 ARTICLE
Fantasy NFL - Strength Of Schedule
NFL 2010 Season Forecast
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Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

I would guess that 99% of fantasy players and fantasy forecasting services rely on last year’s statistics to project how a player will perform in the upcoming season. At AccuScore, perhaps the second biggest factor in forecasting player performance is strength of schedule. All you have to do is watch the Detroit Lions or St. Louis Rams defense for 5 minutes and you’ll realize that even the most mediocre Quarterback can have 250 yards and 2 touchdowns if he’s lucky enough to play one of these teams.

As good as Matt Ryan may have been as a rookie, the fact is his numbers were seriously inflated because he played the 4th easiest schedule based on opponent average winning percentage in 2008. The NFC South had a couple RBs who had phenomenal 2008 seasons – Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams and Atlanta’s Michael Turner. While AccuScore expects good years from both of these players in 2009, you need to be aware that they benefited mightily playing in the NFC South in 2008. Using AccuScore’s defensive power ratings, the NFC South had 4 of the 5 easiest schedules in terms of the quality of opposing run defenses in 2008. However, in 2009, the schedule is much tougher and the opposing defenses that Atlanta and Carolina face are 2 of the 4 toughest.

The table below has a recap of each team’s average opponent winning percentage in 2008 and 2009 (using 2008 winning percentages). We also showed opponent’s average power rating for 2008 opponents against the run and against the pass. Team power ratings are based on multiple key simulation statistics and each team is rated on a 0% (weakest) to 100% (strongest) scale. For example, Atlanta’s 2008 opponents won 47% of their games. Their 2009 opponents won 59% of their games in 2008. Atlanta’s opponents were rated 48% against the run and 47% against the pass. Their 2009 opponents are much better at 63% against the run and 55% against the pass. This improved opponent quality is not surprising considering the NFC South has to play the NFC East and AFC East this year.

 

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

OPP WIN%

OPP RUN DEFENSE

OPP PASS DEFENSE

TEAM

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

ARIZONA CARDINALS

53%

44%

57%

51%

45%

42%

ATLANTA FALCONS

47%

59%

48%

63%

47%

55%

BALTIMORE RAVENS

56%

44%

62%

53%

60%

48%

BUFFALO BILLS

45%

57%

52%

59%

38%

48%

CAROLINA PANTHERS

49%

59%

49%

62%

45%

54%

CHICAGO BEARS

48%

41%

50%

54%

48%

48%

CINCINNATI BENGALS

55%

46%

68%

58%

64%

54%

CLEVELAND BROWNS

57%

45%

67%

59%

61%

51%

DALLAS COWBOYS

50%

52%

65%

55%

61%

51%

DENVER BRONCOS

46%

48%

50%

58%

43%

53%

DETROIT LIONS

56%

47%

61%

64%

54%

55%

GREEN BAY PACKERS

50%

43%

54%

58%

42%

46%

HOUSTON TEXANS

52%

50%

62%

57%

58%

46%

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

50%

51%

62%

57%

51%

44%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

54%

52%

57%

55%

54%

45%

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

54%

48%

51%

55%

43%

50%

MIAMI DOLPHINS

47%

59%

52%

62%

38%

48%

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

51%

42%

52%

54%

48%

49%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

48%

59%

53%

59%

42%

50%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

50%

56%

49%

55%

44%

50%

NEW YORK GIANTS

51%

53%

64%

56%

55%

49%

NEW YORK JETS

47%

57%

52%

56%

40%

50%

OAKLAND RAIDERS

52%

48%

51%

56%

39%

44%

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

53%

54%

63%

54%

54%

49%

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

53%

43%

65%

55%

57%

51%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

54%

48%

47%

53%

46%

55%

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

45%

44%

54%

52%

42%

41%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

50%

46%

58%

52%

51%

46%

ST. LOUIS RAMS

53%

46%

62%

57%

44%

41%

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

48%

58%

46%

58%

39%

50%

TENNESSEE TITANS

47%

51%

56%

57%

48%

42%

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

48%

49%

60%

49%

54%

47%

In order to evaluate Team Defenses for your fantasy draft you will want to consider similar data as above, only from an opposing offense’s perspective. It’s a scary thought, but the #1 Pittsburgh Steelers defense should be just as dominant or even more statistically dominant this year. Their opponents’ average winning percentage and offensive power ratings are considerably lower in 2009 than they were in 2008.

 

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

OPP WIN%

OPP RUN OFFENSE

OPP PASS OFFENSE

TEAM

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

ARIZONA CARDINALS

53%

44%

44%

35%

43%

43%

ATLANTA FALCONS

47%

59%

42%

51%

55%

60%

BALTIMORE RAVENS

56%

44%

34%

31%

47%

44%

BUFFALO BILLS

45%

57%

43%

53%

51%

59%

CAROLINA PANTHERS

49%

59%

43%

49%

63%

66%

CHICAGO BEARS

48%

41%

39%

28%

53%

40%

CINCINNATI BENGALS

55%

46%

42%

38%

48%

42%

CLEVELAND BROWNS

57%

45%

38%

34%

53%

45%

DALLAS COWBOYS

50%

52%

36%

52%

50%

63%

DENVER BRONCOS

46%

48%

49%

42%

55%

53%

DETROIT LIONS

56%

47%

42%

29%

59%

47%

GREEN BAY PACKERS

50%

43%

39%

25%

50%

36%

HOUSTON TEXANS

52%

50%

35%

36%

51%

54%

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

50%

51%

38%

41%

48%

53%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

54%

52%

34%

37%

52%

55%

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

54%

48%

50%

40%

61%

53%

MIAMI DOLPHINS

47%

59%

43%

50%

49%

60%

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

51%

42%

39%

30%

61%

41%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

48%

59%

37%

50%

55%

61%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

50%

56%

47%

54%

53%

53%

NEW YORK GIANTS

51%

53%

33%

44%

44%

62%

NEW YORK JETS

47%

57%

41%

48%

54%

61%

OAKLAND RAIDERS

52%

48%

52%

43%

63%

54%

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

53%

54%

38%

51%

48%

60%

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

53%

43%

38%

36%

50%

42%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

54%

48%

51%

46%

58%

50%

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

45%

44%

37%

29%

54%

53%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

50%

46%

35%

24%

55%

51%

ST. LOUIS RAMS

53%

46%

39%

27%

56%

57%

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

48%

58%

48%

57%

56%

62%

TENNESSEE TITANS

47%

51%

31%

31%

48%

59%

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

48%

49%

32%

47%

46%

55%

 

AccuScore Partners

Updated July 4, 2009

LATEST ACCUSCORE COMPUTER TRENDS

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25-11, 69% +1465
Home Team Wins 45-65% ML
475-349, 57.6% +4286

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