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AFC

The Bengals bounced back from a damaging Week 6 with an impressive Week 7 win. Their playoff chances improved significantly not only because they won a game that was a “coin-flip” (50-50 chance of winning), but they won in an impressive fashion and the stats from the Chicago game helped their future simulation performance. The Steelers also improved their chances slightly by beating the Vikings. These two wins by division rivals hurt the idle Ravens and the lowly Browns.

The Chargers also got a much needed win and while it will be hard to catch Denver for the AFC West lead (just 15.7 percent), the Chargers do have a favorable forecast for making the playoffs as a Wild Card. The Broncos were on a Bye Week but their playoff chances are still rock solid at over 95 percent. If the team can pull of another win in Week 8 at Baltimore they will really be in great position for home field advantage in at least their first playoff game. The Chiefs and Raiders both have no realistic chance at turning the seasons around.

The Jets and Patriots both saw their playoff chances increase modestly after both winning games in which they were clear-cut favorites. The Bills also won, but their playoff chances did not improve because the rest of their key AFC competitors also won. The fact that the other AFC East teams all won and the Dolphins blew a large lead to the Saints knocked the Dolphins playoff chances by over 20 percentage points.

The AFC South is still clearly in the hands of the Colts that should cruise to a division win by simply beating the teams they are supposed to beat. Even if they lose to the Patriots and Broncos (both games at home) they still have an excellent chance of winning 14+ games and finishing with a 5 game lead in the division. Houston clung to a win in Week 7 but with each week that passes where the Colts win the chances of any other AFC South team making the playoffs goes down.

NFC

The Packers not only won over the lowly Browns, their playoff chances (up over 25 percentage points) rose because of the Bears and Vikings losses. The Vikings only dropped -1.5 points because they lost a game they were expected to lose and they did have some good moments. The Bears, however, were blown out again due to a lack of a running game and Jay Cutler turnovers. These poor statistical performances negatively impact the Bears simulations for Week 8 through 17 and this is the reason why their playoff chances are down dramatically.

The Eagles and Cowboys both capitalized on the Giants struggles. The Eagles chances improved because they beat a division rival. The Cowboys chances improved because they beat a Wild Card competitor, in Atlanta. The Cowboys will likely find themselves in 2nd place to win the division next week behind whoever wins the Eagles-Giants game. This assumes their revived passing offense leads them to another win at home (vs Seattle).

The 49ers actually improved their chances despite losing last week. This is due to the strong performance from Alex Smith vs Houston. If Smith can improve the SF offense they still have a decent 20 percent chance of catching Arizona thanks to their Week 1 win at Arizona. The Cardinals saw their playoff chances improve to over 80 percent thanks to an impressive win over the Giants and a defense that is improving each week.

The Saints are approaching Colts territory with a 99 percent + chance of making the playoffs. Their Week 8 game vs the Falcons obviously will have a huge impact on playoff chances. While the Saints can ‘afford’ to lose a game, if Atlanta, down -12.5 points this week, can run the ball well and beat the Saints their playoff chances will increase by double digits. Currently, the Saints are a heavy 80 percent favorite in their game.