AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

AFC

The New England Patriots were the big winners in the AFC this week. Not only did they win while the Jets lost, the way the Patriots won --- a dominating offensive performance --- bodes well for the rest of the Patriots season. New England improved their playoff chances by over 35 percent because their chances of winning the AFC East improved to from 40 percent last week to 78 percent. The Jets not only have lost 3 in a row, they lost their last 2 to division rivals. These losses, especially at home, really take their toll and the Jets now have just an 13 percent chance of making the playoffs. AccuScore expected Sanchez to struggle when the weather got worse given his lack of experience dealing with the elements and his Week 6 performance only validated this assessment. This does not bode well for his ability to play well @New England in Week 11, @ Buffalo in Week 13, vs Atlanta in Week 15 and the Bengals in Week 17. The Dolphins are actually ahead of the Jets now in playoff probability despite being only 2-3.

The Steelers chances improved considerably thanks to the Bengals upset loss and an injury to Antwan Odom. The Bengals still have a solid 47 percent chance at making the playoffs, but a loss to the Texans at home definitely hurt. Even though the Ravens lost a game they were expected to lose their playoff chances still dropped nearly 20 percent because of the way they lost. The Vikings game seemed to confirm that the Ravens pass defense is one of the worst in the league and the run defense is potentially mediocre. No matter how the offense plays the Ravens chances against Pittsburgh, the Colts, Packers and other prolific offenses just went down.

The AFC South appears all but over with the Colts having a 99 percent chance of winning the division. The Colts have a 2 game lead, but more importantly, they are playing at a much higher level than the 3-3 Jaguars who barely edged out the Rams at home, and the Texans, who are good enough to beat anyone and are inconsistent enough to lose to anyone. Houston are the team best equipped to make a move in the AFC because they have not played the Colts yet and still have a theoretical chance of beating the Colts twice. The challenge for Houston is they have a tough schedule with just 2 games in which they are heavily favored.

The Monday Night Football game established the Denver Broncos as the class of the AFC West. Not only did they beat the favored Chargers on the road which significantly boosts their chances of winning the division, it was also the way they won which involved out-playing the Chargers in every way possible – better offense, vastly superior defense, more big special teams play and better coaching. The Broncos are now second to just the Colts in playoff probability at over 97 percent. The Chargers loss helped limit the damage to the Bengals and Ravens chances who are their primary Wild Card competitors.

NFC

The Cardinals are actually the #1 run defense (statistically speaking) and by destroying Seattle on the road they re-established themselves as the favorite in the NFC West. Even though the 49ers have the same record and have a big road win over Arizona the Cardinals are favored to win the division based on quality of play the rest of the year. Most would concede that the Cardinals are the better offense, but right now they are playing well defensively which is why they are performing better in simulations than the 49ers. Seattle was hoping that a healthy Matt Hasselbeck would carry their team to the post-season, but after the debacle on Sunday and the season ending injury to Lofa Totupa the Seahawks only have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Saints dominated the Giants and statistically speaking, this team not only has no flaws, they arguably are strong in every area of the game. The passing game gets the press but this team runs well and is playing great defense. The Saints still ‘only’ have an 85 percent chance of winning the division because the Falcons are staying close. Atlanta improved their playoff chances by +7 percent because by beating Chicago they have the edge over a potential Wild Card competitor. Amazingly, the Panthers and Tampa Bay have less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs combined.

There was only minimal movement in the NFC North. Minnesota won an exciting game over Baltimore but it was a game they were expected to win and their chances improved just 3.5 percent. The Bears only dropped 3 percent because they lost a game they were expected to lose. The Packers’ chances changed the most improving +10 percent because they beat Detroit and key Wild Card competitors, Chicago and Philadelphia lost.

The Eagles stunning loss to the Raiders dropped their chances 30 percent. When you are looking to win 11 games and you lose a game in which you are an 80 percent+ favorite, it takes a major toll on playoff chances. The Eagles will not only need to avoid any future upset losses, but they will also likely need to sweep the Cowboys to secure a Wild Card spot. The idle Cowboys improved their chances by 12 percent because of the 3 other NFC East teams all losing. The Giants may have been humbled in New Orleans, but their loss only hurt them by 7 percent because they were not expected to upset the Saints. The Giants still have a solid 61 percent chance to win the NFC East and a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.