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AFC

The Broncos won again and in the process saw their playoff chances jump 27 percent. Even though they have a 65.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, this is significantly lower other 4-0 teams. AccuScore.com simulations indicate that the Chargers still have just a good a chance of winning the AFC West as Denver. The Chiefs and Raiders saw minor changes in their playoff probability because their overall chances of making the playoffs were just 4.6 percent combined heading into Week 4, now they have just a 1.8 percent chance after just 1 month.

The Steelers saw their chances improve by 16 points because they beat a potential Wild Card competitor in San Diego and the Ravens lost to the Patriots. The Bengals beat the Browns on the road, but their playoff probability only improved slightly because they were ‘supposed’ to win this game and their overall unimpressive performance, especially their run defense, does not bode well for them going forward.

The Jaguars have surprised many with 2 strong wins over division rivals. AccuScore did project them for 8 wins this season and they are showing signs of living up to this relatively high expectation. If Maurice Jones-Drew holds up all season as the primary RB and David Garrard continues to limit interceptions the Jaguars can keep their playoff chances alive most of the season. They improved their chances by nearly 13 points. Their improvement is more than off-set by the Titans -16 percentage point decline. The ‘mighty’ Titans now have just a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans beat the Raiders but their playoff chances declined because the Jaguars’ unexpected success.

The Dolphins may not be in as bad a shape as some might think. Their running game is dominating and their defense has the talent to be a Top 8 unit. If Chad Henne does not turn the ball over this team could certainly create problems for a number of playoff contenders. The Dolphins still only have an 11 percent chance of making the playoffs, but considering they are one late Peyton Manning drive away from being 2-2 they should not lose hope in Miami. The Jets dropped 15 percentage points not only because they lost to the Saints, but Mark Sanchez is expected to have turnover problems the rest of the season as increasingly bad weather and a tough schedule could make things difficult. The Jets still are serious playoff contenders even with the decline.

NFC

The Giants improved nearly 13 percentage points despite only beating the lowly Chiefs. They improved more than expected because a potential playoff competitor, Dallas, lost to the Broncos. With Dallas already 2 games behind the NFC East could end up being a 2 team race instead of a 3 team race. The Eagles were on a Bye and saw their playoff chances virtually unchanged, while the Redskins only improved 0.5 percent because their 3 point win over Tampa Bay at home did not help their playoff chances.

The San Francisco 49ers won again. Coupled NFC West rival, Seattle’s loss, the 49ers saw a healthy 7.6 percent increase. The statistics indicate that the 49ers are an elite defense that should keep them in every game of the season. The Cardinals were on a Bye week. They need to beat Houston at home next week or they could see a large drop-off in next week’s playoff forecast because they have already lost to the 49ers at home.

The Packers saw their playoff chances drop -6.3 percent and their drop-off benefited the Bears and Vikings equally. The Vikings are the clear-cut favorite to win the NFC North. While the Bears are technically second to the Packers, Green Bay still has a healthy 45 percent chance of making the playoffs because of their first week win over Chicago.

The Saints keep rolling thanks to a great running game and defense. Their playoff chances are now close to 95 percent. They are especially strong because what was supposed to be a 3 team race in the division is now just a 2 team race between the Saints and Falcons. Tampa Bay is also worst than expected. In pre-season forecasts the Bucs averaged 6 wins, but they now appear to be a 2 or 3 win team.