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I just got back from a weekend in Las
Vegas and picked up the Player Propositions Sheet at the Venetian.
I compared the betting line with AccuScore’s current season player
projections (stats based on average of 10,000 season simulations) to
see if there were any strong plays.
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
The first key stat is Passing Touchdowns
and there are number of strong Over plays.
| QB |
ACCUSCORE
PICK: OVER |
| Tom Brady
LINE: 27.5 ACC: 38 |
It looks like Vegas expects Brady's
injury from last season to take a severe toll with a line of just 29.5.
This is a 20.5 drop from his 50 TD '07-08 Season. The key pieces
of that record breaking offense are still in place and AccuScore expects
Brady to soar of 30 TDs this season while still being well under his
record-breaking pace. |
| Drew Brees
LINE: 27.5 ACC: 32 |
Brees has averaged over 29 passing TDs
a season since joining the Saints. AccuScore expects him to come
close to his 34 from last season with 32 in '09. The Vegas line
is set at 27.5 probably because the Saints have a tougher schedule in
2009. However, as long as the offense still passes the ball over
580 times, Brees (and WR Marques Colston) stay healthy he should go
over 27.5. |
| Kurt Warner
LINE: 25.5 ACC: 34 |
Clearly Vegas thinks Warner will get
hurt and miss as many as 3 or 4 games. AccuScore's projection
is for Warner to stay healthy and with Anquan Boldin in camp and seemingly
ready to play the season with Arizona the Cardinals prolific passing
game should reach the endzone at least 30+ times. This pick is
100% tied to Warner's ability to stay healthy. |
| Donovan
McNabb
LINE: 21.5 ACC: 26 |
McNabb had 23 passing TDs in '09.
He had 10 in his first 8 games (1.25 per game), but finished with 18
in his final 11 regular season and playoff games (1.64 average).
His higher average was tied to the healthy return of WR Kevin Curtis
and the emergence of TE Brent Celek. With a healthy set of receivers
which includes rookie Jeremy Maclin, McNabb is set for a better season
in 2009 and over 21.5 passing TDs. |
| Matt Hasselbeck
LINE: 19.5 ACC: 23 |
Hasselbeck is just 1 season removed
from a 28 Pass TD season in 2007. If healthy, the Seahawks passing
game should more closely resemble the 2007 sqaud than the injury plagued
2008 one. They added TJ Houshmandzadeh and Hasselbeck is healthy.
The NFC West is still a relatively weak division and Hasselbeck should
have over 20 TDs. |
| Ben Roethlisberger
LINE: 19.0 ACC: 22 |
Big Ben was considered a fantasy bust
in 2008 with just 17 TDs (down from 32 the previous season), but considering
how tough his schedule was 17 was very good. The Steelers go from
having the toughest schedule to one of the easiest and Roethlisberger
is slated to bounce back with a 20+ TD season. |
| Matt Ryan
LINE: 17.5 ACC: 22 |
The Falcons have a much tougher schedule
in 2008 which could hurt their chances of returning to the playoffs,
but it could actually help Matt Ryan produce more TDs because the Falcons
may play more games from behind which relies on the passing game.
They also have Tony Gonzalez to help Ryan pass for over 20 TDs in simulations. |
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