NFL Football Futures

AccuScore

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Our initial futures article was based on simulations run in July, but there have been many major events the past month that impacted season forecasts so here is our updated NFL Futures article.

TOO MUCH JUICE ON CONFERENCE AND SUPER BOWL WINNER BETS

The first thing I’m going to do is NOT bet on who will win the AFC or NFC. I translated the betting lines for each team into the % chance Vegas is giving each team to win the conference. If you add up the individual percentages you end up over 150 percent in each conference. If the Sportsbooks were offering fair odds the percentages would add up to maybe 115% or 120% at most. There is not a single good bet on the board when you consider these lines. The same thing goes on Super Bowl bets where the total % chance of all teams in the league is 163.1%.

DIVISION WINNERS

AccuScore simulations the season 10,000 times and tabulates the number of times each team wins their division. In order to use this data to make some Futures picks we first translate the betting odds (ex. 2/1, 5/2) into a percentage value based on the odds. For example, 2/1 translates to a 33.3% chance. If you add up the Vegas percentages for all the teams in the division you end up with a value of around 120 percent. This value is greater than 100 percent because it represents the commission that sportsbooks charge. We adjust the percentage for each team so they total 100 percent.

BALTIMORE: Even though Baltimore is second to Pittsburgh in terms of winning the division, their 44.8 percent chance is considerably higher than the 29.4 percent that the Line translates to.

AFC NORTH	LINE	%Chance	%Adj	Acc%	DIFF
Pittsburgh	5/7	58.3%	48.1%	52.3%	4.2%
Baltimore	9/5	35.7%	29.4%	44.8%	15.4%
Cleveland	5/1	16.7%	13.7%	1.7%	-12.0%
Cincinnati	9/1	10.0%	8.2%	1.2%	-7.0%

NEW ORLEANS: They are a close 3^rd in Vegas odds-maker rankings, but they are #1 in AccuScore’s rankings.

NFC SOUTH	LINE	%Chance	%Adj	Acc%	DIFF
Carolina	9/5	35.7%	29.4%	27.3%	-2.1%
Atlanta	2/1	33.3%	27.5%	31.5%	4.0%
New Orleans	9/4	30.8%	25.4%	33.9%	8.5%
Tampa Bay	5/1	16.7%	13.7%	7.3%	-6.4%

For our full Division Winner picks sign up for Winner’s Edge.

WIN TOTALS – OVER/UNDER

AccuScore simulations the season 10,000 times and calculates the average number of wins each team has. By comparing this average with the current Win Total Betting Line we identify AccuScore’s Under picks (teams with at least a -0.7 difference) and the Over picks (teams with a +0.7 difference). The rest are too close to call and are classified as a “push”.

There are 6 teams on the Under list, but Denver stands out to me the most. Denver won 8 games last year with one of the easiest schedules in the league, especially in terms of the quality of opposing pass defenses. One of these wins came on a game they should have lost if not for the bogus Week 2 non-fumble call vs the Chargers. This was a 7 win team last year. With the changes in Denver, AccuScore expects the Broncos to take a step back and win under 7. There is a good chance of a Push (Denver wins 7) and this will not cost you. The risk of losing (Denver winning 8 or more) is under 35 percent.

UNDER PICKS	LINE	ACC	DIFF
Denver	7.0	5.4	-1.6

For our full list of Over/Under picks sign up for Winner’s Edge.

AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

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