Oklahoma or Texas to Win BCS Title Game in 2010

Zach Rosenfield - AccuScore Analyst

College football is only three months away and before we know it the season will be here. Recently, Las Vegas came out with their odds to win the 2010 BCS National Championship (http://thegreek.com/sports/home.asp). Unlike most sports, picking the eventual BCS Championship is not as challenging as say…who will win the Big 10. College football is an elitist system where the front runners are determined as much by the voters as they are by the quality of your team.

As the 2010 season gets underway, there are only two teams worthy of betting on and they are as good of bets as they come.

Texas +800

Oklahoma +500

Texas +800: In the world of gift bets, Santa Clause could not have gift wrapped this one any better. The University of Texas was one play away from playing for the 2009 BCS Championship and come back with a team that will be even stronger than last season. I think that “chip on your shoulder” attitude is good fodder for the paper, but doesn’t translate to wins on Saturday’s. When you take a look at the 2009 Longhorn football team, you get every key variable AND eight times the return on your money.

Why I Love Texas at +800

• Texas has a very soft non-conference schedule that consists of home games with Louisiana-Monroe, Texas-El Paso, Central Florida and a road game against Wyoming.

• Texas has a very favorable conference schedule filled with Big 12 titans who are rebuilding. They moved up their home game with Texas Tech to mid-September and travel to Columbia to play Missouri, who lost every skill player they had to graduation/NFL draft.

• Mack Brown has had Bob Stoops number lately in the Red River Rivalry and beat the Sooners last season despite having an average running game, no tight end and an inexperienced defensive backfield.

• The Texas PR machine will be working overtime from Labor Day until the final gun of the Red River Rivalry. If Texas avenges the loss with a win against Tech, and once again beats OU in Dallas, I guarantee you that Texas will represent the South in the Big 12 Championship Game (which should be a National Semi-Final for whichever team from the South plays in it).

• Texas does have a trap game on Halloween when they travel to Stillwater to play upstart Oklahoma State. While Texas has struggled in Stillwater, I am betting they do not fall into the trap they did in Lubbock last year and will beat the inferior Cowboys.

• Texas is actually good enough to win the National Championship and you have extra odds to play with. Worst case scenario for the gambler is they play Florida (+175), in which case Texas would be an underdog. You can double down your bet for more odds, or you can hedge it. With 8x the return to play with, you can hedge your bet for half the odds. This would give you 2:1 with Florida and 4:1 with Texas. Either way, you will get paid off nicely.

Oklahoma +500: I was surprised to find Oklahoma to be the betting line’s second choice to win the 2010 National Championship. They got hit hard by graduation at WR and lost key players on the offensive line. They will re-match Texas in Dallas and no longer have a strangle hold over the Longhorns. Furthermore, Texas will be stronger than their 2008 team while OU will need to leverage their non-conference schedule to show they can be they can duplicate their offensive output from 2008. While OU certainly has variables working against them, I still think they are a fantastic bet to win the National Championship at +500.

Why I Love Oklahoma at +500

• Oklahoma returns Sam Bradford, Jermaine Gresham, all three running backs and brings back a solid defense.

• The Sooners open up with BYU and later travel to back to Dolphin Stadium to play the Miami Hurricanes. If Oklahoma wins both of their games, the questions about the players OU lost will be answered and they will be a solid #3 in the polls and in the eyes of the critics

• They play Texas in Dallas. The 2009 Red River Rivalry will be as big a game played in the series history. Texas will most likely be #2 (behind Florida) and OU should be #3 if they beat BYU and Miami. Whoever wins this game has an iron clad grip on one of the top two positions in the polls.

• Oklahoma has only one trap game and that is in Lubbock where their 2007 National Championship dreams were dashed. However, the Red Raiders are rebuilding after losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree.

• Oklahoma State comes to Norman. Bedlam has been competitive since the turn of the century and there is nothing to say that this year will be any different. Once again, the Cowboys will be ranked in the top #15 and a Sooners win will once again provide a timely BCS boost during the late season jostling .

• If OU beats Texas and OSU, they will go undefeated. Plain and simple. The worst case scenario for the gambler is they play Florida (+175). While you do not have as much hedge equity with 5-to-1, the gambler is going to benefit from the game’s storyline and rematch from last year. You will once again be able to double down on OU, or you can hedge you roughly 2-to-1 per side. Either way, you will create a situation where you can crush the Vegas line on either side for that game.

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After looking at the rest of the field, there are a lot of pretenders out there. I want to address the pretenders and why I am taking a pass on them. It’s not because I am a Big 12 honk. It is simple economics and good business.

Florida +175: Florida is very worthy of being the odds on favorite to repeat as National Champion and I pick them to make it back to the game.
However, I hate the odds. You have zero hedge equity and the SEC Championship Game does you know favors as a gambler. Those are really the only reasons I don’t like this bet. Too much has to happen and you aren’t getting a good pay out. The Gators will roll over LSU, Georgia, FSU and the rest of the big name pretenders who fill their schedule. I think Florida goes to Pasadena, I just hate the price.

USC +800: USC is the best suckers bet on the books. If you are looking to lose money, but feel good about yourself in the process…then I urge you to take USC at +800. The Trojans named unproven Aaron Corp their starter. Corp was a talented QB in high school, but I was never that impressed with him. I don’t think he is going to be a sustainable force under center. The defensive side is just as murky having to replace three linebackers. Toss in road games at Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State, Cal and Notre Dame and you will see why P.T. Barnum urges you to take USC.

Ohio State +1200: I think USC would be much more attractive at the price you are getting for Ohio State. +1200 is very attractive for Ohio State because they play in the soft Big 10 and I might pay attention to it. However, there are a few factors that remind me to stay away from this one. First, they are Ohio State and simply cannot win the big game. They don’t have the talent to do so. Secondly, they play USC early in September and can easily be eliminated from the race. Add in fall trips to Happy Valley, a QB who is yet to prove much of anything, the loss of a key WR and RB and you will be reminded why “money” and “championship”
should never be spoken in the same sentence when referring to Ohio State.

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Remember, College Football is about star power. Florida, Texas and Oklahoma have it, not just in name, but in players. USC does not have a bankable player, Ohio State is just boring and Alabama missed their window. Virginia Tech is just not that good and LSU is a year away.
Florida State was good ten years ago and Miami was better ten years before that.

It’s a beauty contest where certain variables fall your way. I am already picking Florida to make it to Pasadena and Texas and Oklahoma have unfinished business. Whoever emerges from the rubble of the Cotton Bowl simply has too much PR, star power, strength of schedule and ability to be denied the second ticket to the BCS dance. Toss in their value and ask me if I think either of them will win the National Championship and I would say “I’d bet on it!”

ACCUSCORE QUICK LAUNCH