Quantcast

AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

AccuScore
Recent Trade Helps Bulls Deal with Deng Injury
Luol Deng's leg injury might keep the forward out for the rest of the season, but Chicago's deadline day splash should help keep the Bulls in the playoff hunt.

Jonathan Lee
AccuScore Analyst

Luol Deng was already having enough trouble living up to the six-year $71 million contract he signed last offseason.  Now he might not even be able to stay on the court and prove his worth. 

Deng missed Wednesday’s game against the Warriors because of a bruised right tibia.  That injury however might actually be a stress fracture which could force the forward out for the rest of the season.

According to AccuScore simulations though, his loss barely affects the Bulls’ chances of making the playoffs which is either good or bad news for Chicago fans depending on how you view the situation.

BEFORE INJURY

WINS (REST)

WIN TOTAL

MAKE PLAYOFFS

CHICAGO BULLS

10.8

37.8

46.1%

NEW JERSEY NETS

10.2

37.2

41.4%

INDIANA PACERS

10.0

37.0

40.6%

 

AFTER INJURY

WINS (REST)

WIN TOTAL

#8 EAST

CHICAGO BULLS

10.6

37.6

44.6%

NEW JERSEY NETS

10.2

37.2

42.1%

INDIANA PACERS

10.0

37.0

40.8%

The main competition for Chicago for the 8th seed in the East are New Jersey and Indiana.  The Bulls project to win 0.2 fewer games over the rest of the regular season, but still have the best chance of reaching the playoffs among these three teams at 44.6%.

The key for the Bulls here was the deadline acquisition of John Salmons from Sacramento.  Salmons is a talented offensive player, and he is capable of stepping up his minutes and providing similar production to Deng.  Salmons also prefers starting so this would also benefit his performance as opposed to a bench role.  Deng is considered the better defender and rebounder, but the difference in these two areas isn’t substantial.

If Salmons weren’t on the team (along with Brad Miller who came over from the Kings) and Drew Gooden was also bought out, Deng’s injury would have a much more negative effect.  Chicago would have fallen behind both New Jersey and Indiana in the race for the final playoff spot in the East.

NO TRADE

WINS (REST)

WIN TOTAL

#8 EAST

CHICAGO BULLS

9.6

36.6

38.8%

NEW JERSEY NETS

10.6

37.3

42.8%

INDIANA PACERS

10.2

37.2

42.8%

If Deng is indeed out for the season and Salmons performs well in his place it will lead to a dilemma for the Chicago front office.  Deng and Salmons would be redundant pieces, but at significantly different costs to the team.  Deng’s contract is considered an albatross by some while Salmons is a relative bargain with just over $11 million remaining for two seasons after this one.  Depending on how Salmons performs and if the team reaches the postseason, one of the first priorities this offseason should be moving Deng to another team for other assets.