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Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Yankees scored big this week, shelling out almost a quarter of a billion dollars to upgrade their rotation with C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.  New York lost their two best starting pitchers from the 2008 season, with Mike Mussina retiring, and Andy Pettitte currently a free agent.  The Sabathia signing provided the Yankees with a mild upgrade over the 2008 team that featured Mussina and Pettitte, giving the Yankees a 90-72 record in AccuScore simulations of the 2009 season.

When Sabathia was signed, AccuScore simulated the Yankees with Derek Lowe in the rotation, and found that New York finished with a 97-65 record by adding both Sabathia and Lowe.  The addition of Burnett instead of Lowe achieves the same result, with the 2009 Yankees now slight favorites to win the AL East over the Boston Red Sox.  There are still rumors floating that the Yankees could either pursue Derek Lowe, or possibly try to bring back Andy Pettitte in an attempt to form an All-Star rotation that only seemed possible in video games.

The current Yankees rotation projects to be Sabathia, Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, and possibly Alfredo Aceves, who went 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 innings last year for New York.  Aceves showed promise, minus a four run, four inning start against the Red Sox, which raises a question as to whether the Yankees would be better off giving him the fifth spot in the rotation, rather than shelling out money to bring back Pettitte or bring in Lowe.

The 30 innings that Aceves pitched was a very small sample size, and no conclusions can be made from his numbers during that small stretch.  It is unlikely that Aceves would have a 2.40 ERA the entire year, but that’s not to say he will have an ERA similar to the disappointing numbers the Yankees saw from Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy last year.  Current AccuScore simulations assume Aceves will fall somewhere between that 2.40 ERA and the 6.62 ERA that Hughes put up.  In other words, he’s performing like a good back of the rotation pitcher, with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50.

This “good version” of Aceves would provide the same value to the Yankees as Andy Pettitte, and would be three to four games worse than Derek Lowe.  This version is currently rounding out the new rotation that is winning the AL East in AccuScore simulations.

If Aceves ends up being like the 2008 version of Phil Hughes, the Yankees would see their 2009 AccuScore projections drop by four wins, making the Red Sox the favorites in the AL East, with the Yankees and Rays battling for the Wild Card spot.  The “bad version” of Aceves projects to be four games worse than Pettitte, and about seven games worse than Lowe.

The Yankees have considerably upgraded their rotation with Sabathia and Burnett, but at the moment they are gambling on which version of Alfredo Aceves will show up.  The same gamble also applies if the Yankees were to turn to Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.  Alfredo Aceves has a chance to be a good enough pitcher to lead the Yankees to the AL East, but the Yankees almost guarantee that division title by bringing back Pettitte, or signing Lowe.  The question is, do they want to take the risk on Aceves, or spend money and go for the sure thing with Pettitte or Lowe?  Based on what we’ve seen so far with Sabathia and Burnett, the theme of the 2009 Yankees leans more towards spending money on the sure thing.  This could mean an All-Star rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Joba, and Lowe or Pettitte, which would make a Mark Teixeira signing by the Red Sox a necessity to compete for the 2009 AL East title.