AccuScore
| Jameer Nelson Injury Impact |
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Orlando was dealt a blow when All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Given his importance to his team, it would seem the injury could cripple the Magic but AccuScore sees a possible silver lining down the road.
 The Magic saw their ascension to the NBA’s elite possibly slip away from them as their newly minted All-Star point guard clutched his shoulder in pain. It was later diagnosed that Jameer Nelson has a torn labrum in his right shoulder leaving two options: surgery or rehab. Surgery would require a four month recovery time which would put Nelson on the shelf for the entire season. Rehabilitation means he could return anywhere from two to six weeks. For now, it appears the Magic are hoping for the latter route. Losing Nelson obviously will hurt Orlando’s chances of competing seriously for the best record in the East. Nelson was in the midst of a career year averaging 16.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.5 rebounds a game. The most improved part of his game was his shooting as evidenced by the career best 50/45/89 shooting line (FG-3PT-FT). AccuScore simulations had Orlando having an even chance with the Lakers, Celtics, and Cavaliers to end the regular season with the best record, and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Now, with Nelson shelved conservatively for the next month we project the Magic to be about 2.5 games worse than at full strength. That puts them solidly behind both Cleveland and Boston in the East. The upside here is that even if Nelson misses the full six weeks or even possibly most of the regular season our projections would still have Orlando finishing with 57-59 wins, well behind the top two seeds but also well ahead of the number four team in the standings, Atlanta. That means either way the Magic are likely locked into the third seed in the East with this injury, and should focus on getting Nelson back and healthy for the playoffs. Anthony Johnson will act as the team’s starting point guard in the meantime, and proved capable on Wednesday scoring 25 points against the Clippers. General manager Otis Smith made a move to acquire veteran Tyronn Lue to share the duties with Johnson. The type of injury Nelson suffered is very serious, but players in the past such as Dwayne Wade and Lamar Odom have successfully returned to the court and avoided surgery. With the Magic’s playoff destiny apparently sealed, the focus should be on getting Nelson ready for April and beyond, and avoid rushing him back for a meaningless game in March.
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