What Is The Side Value & How Do I Profit From It

AccuScore has delivered huge Side Value Profits in MLB, NBA and NHL the past few seasons.  The problem for many of you reading this is you don’t understand what we mean by Side Value and how to calculate it.

Here are a few recent questions:

Message Todays game for the Nats and Marlins shows Nats 40.2 and +124 versus 59.8 and -132.  124*! 0.402=49.85, while 75.76*0.598=45.30.  This should give the side value to Washington, but you've got it with Florida.  Please explain. Thanks

Message Take the 4/8 Seattle-Minnesota game. Seattle is +145 and a 37% chance to win.  Multiple them and I get a $53.65 expected value.  Minnesota is -153 and a 63% chance to win.  A $100 bet results in a $65.40 win, multiplied by a 63% occurrence to obtain a $41.18 expected value.  Yet you have Minnesota as your Side Value pick.  Please help me figure out my logic flaw.  Thank you.

To calculate Side Value there are 3 steps:

STEP 1:  TRANSLATE MONEY LINE INTO EXPECTED WINS AND LOSSES
In the first questions above the Nats are +124.  This means that for ever 100 wins Vegas expects 124 losses, which is why you make +124 on the 100 risk.  Vegas gives the Nats a 44.6% of winning (100 / 224).

The Marlins are a -132 favorite.  This means for every 132 Wins, there are 100 expected losses.  So Vegas gives the Marlins a 56.8% chance of winning.

STEP 2:  REMOVE THE VIG
If you add the Nats’ 44.6% to the Marlins’ 56.8% you get 101.4%.  This extra 1.4% is the Juice Vegas applies so they profit no matter who wins the game as long as betting action is evenly distributed.

By dividing the Nats 44.6% by 101.4% and the Marlins’ 56.8% by 101.4% you end up with the Nats at value of 44% and the Marlins 56%.  These are the LW% (Las Vegas Winning Percentages).

STEP 3:  COMPARE LW% TO ACCUSCORE SIMULATION WINNING PERCENTAGE
In the second message above the user was multiplying the AccuScore simulation winning percentages by the money lines.  This is NOT what you do.  Step 1 and Step 2 had nothing to do with AccuScore’s Simulation Winning Percentage.

To determine Side Value you compare the LW% to the Sim Win % and the team whose Sim Win % is higher than their LW% is the Side Value Pick.  In example 1 above, Florida’s Sim Win% is 59.8% which is higher than their LW% of 56%.  Florida is the Side Value Pick.

AccuScore Side Value profits in MLB have been +8000 (100 units risk ed per game) every year since we launched (3 seasons running).

NBA Side Values are over +5,000 as of April 8, 2009.  NHL Side Values are over +2,000 as of April 8, 2009.

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