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Fantasy Football Week 5 Scouting
Tuesday, 06 October 2009 17:46

The point of this feature is to highlight major shifts in Fantasy Scout projections from the previous week – not to win journalism awards. Sign up for Fantasy Plus to use Fantasy Scout to get full Weekly projections, player comparison tools and rankings updated daily.

QUARTERBACKS

If Sacks do not count as negative points then Aaron Rodgers is the projected #1 QB the rest of the season. Rodgers puts up big passing numbers and scrambles for 10 to 20 yards per game. If your league penalizes QBs for taking sacks then Rodgers is not your #1 QB.

Maybe Joe Flacco will end up being a top 8 Fantasy QB if Cam Cameron keeps passing the ball as much as he has been. AccuScore simulations clearly show the team is better if they establish the run first. If the Ravens come out passing again vs Cincinnati in Week 5 then assume Flacco will continue posting 250+ passing yards, but if they return to a more balanced attack then assume Flacco will continue having a good passer rating, but not necessarily Top 8 fantasy stats.

David Garrard is doing a good job limiting interceptions and his ability to scramble for 20+ yards on a consistent basis makes him a Top 10 Fantasy QB.

The Bengals are winning but Carson Palmer is not putting up big numbers with just 211 yards per game, 6 TDs and 5 INTs. The Bengals are winning so there is no reason to believe the team will look to become a pass first offense while Cedric Benson is playing well. Palmer is only projected for over 15 fantasy points in 3 of his remaining games.

Tony Romo continues to drop in the ratings due to a lack of chemistry with the receivers, his high turnover rate and the success of the running game (more run plays, fewer passing). If not for poor tackling by the Tampa Bay secondary in Week 1 Romo would might be averaging under 220 yards with more INTs than TDs. The league adapts to players. Just as defenses are more equipped to handle Tom Brady and the Patriots, the league might have figured out Romo and his improvisational abilities.

Mark Sanchez has been impressive as a rookie, but AccuScore thinks Sanchez, who never has played in bad weather, will continue turning the ball over at a high rate the rest of the season as weather gets worse as the season progresses.

RUNNING BACKS

Maurice Jones-Drew is now #1 over Adrian Peterson. Peterson has a number of tough defenses remaining on the schedule (Giants, 2 Bears games, Pittsburgh, Baltimore). He’s obviously someone to start every week, but he only has 3 ‘easy’ opponents left on the schedule.

AccuScore rated Michael Turner just 5th amongst fantasy RBs in the pre-season because of his lack of receptions and the strong correlation between his rushing yards and the quality of competition. Now that the Saints defense looks legit it could be a disappoint year for Turner owners because he has a number of games against good defenses. He should have enough carries and goal line opportunities to be a Top 5 RB, but AccuScore does not expect Turner to put up many 120+ yard games this year.

Marion Barber looked at risk of dropping in the rankings due to injury and Felix Jones’ emergence, but now that Jones is out again and Barber ran well in Week 4, he maintains his Top 6 ranking.

The toughest RB to evaluate is Rashard Mendenhall. Does his explosive Week 4 mean he starts getting 15 to 20 touches per game or will Willie Parker continue being the starter? How much of his huge performance was due to his ability or was it the Chargers porous run defense? He averaged 6.4 ypc in his past 32 carries, but just 2.8 in his first 23. Do we forget the first 23 carries? Only time will tell, but AccuScore does have Mendenhall producing very good numbers per carry (4.9 ypc) the rest of the season and depending on Parker’s health Mendenhall could be a Top 5 RB the next 2 or 3 weeks.

Jerome Harrison is not expected to put up a lot of touchdowns due to the overall ineptitude of the Browns offense, but Harrison is certainly a better runner and receiver than Jamal Lewis and he should start even when Lewis returns.

With Correll Buckhalter leaving Week 4 on crutches, Knowshon Moreno should start consistently getting 14+ carries and his value is on the rise.

WIDE RECEIVERS

There is not much of a shift amongst the Top of the WR list. Calvin Johnson will put up big numbers regardless of whether Culpepper has to fill in for an injured Stafford.

Marques Colston has dropped slightly due to opposing defenses doing everything possible to slow down the Saints passing game. While this has worked, it has opened up huge holes for the Saints running game in the process. We do not expect Drew Brees to score no TD passes in many more games this year and Colston should get back to being a Top 8 WR.

Steve Smith has become the #1 WR on the Giants while Mario Manningham has dipped to a WR ranking of 30-35. Manningham is getting fewer looks with the return of rookie Hakeem Nicks. Smith’s targets are expected to remain steady even with Nicks back, but Manningham’s are down.

Pierre Garcon has been a pleasant surprise for the Colts but AccuScore does not expect him to trend upwards this season. He is on the radar screen for opposing defenses and Austin Collie is now emerging. When Anthony Gonzalez comes back there will not be enough pass attempts for any WR besides Reggie Wayne to average more than 3 receptions per game. Also, if the Colts keep playing well and have double digit 4th quarter leads it leads to fewer 2nd half pass attempts and more rushes.

Keep your eye out on Tennesee’s Kenny Britt. He has been impressive with 17 receptions in 4 games with 15.9 yards per reception. His fantasy totals are low because he has yet to score a TD. Big, explosive WRs like Britt could put up big fantasy numbers if the Titans offense can start executing in the Red Zone.

TIGHT ENDS

John Carlson needs Matt Hasselbeck to come back. In 8 games with Matt Hasselbeck starting Carlson averages 4.4 receptions, 58 yards (13.3 ypr) and 8.1 fantasy points. In 11 games without Hasselbeck he averaged 3.6 receptions, 33 yards (9.3 ypr) and just 5.5 fantasy points. If Hasselbeck comes back Carlson should return to being a Top 6 TE.

Vernon Davis has moved up 4 spots this week. Shaun Hill targets Davis more than any other receiver and Davis is beginning to consistently show explosiveness with over 12 yards per reception and 3 TDs this year (vs just 9 TDs in his previous 40 games).

Even though WR Mike Wallace has cut into Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward’s production, TE Heath Miller has seen more passes thrown his way than in previous seasons. He had 48 receptions 13 games last year, but already has 24 receptions in just 4 games this season and Miller is now a Top 6 TE.

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