About Zach Rosenfield
NFL & College Football Expert for AccuScore. Makes regular appearances on ESPN's The Dave Dameshek Show Podcast.Connect With Zach Rosenfield
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How To Best Utilize The AccuScore System
Zach Rosenfield
| Fading AccuScore |
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One of the most common questions I get at AccuScore is "should I always take the high probability pick" when looking at ATS simulations? The answer is no! Even though it is early in the season, the AccuScore Daily Line Report should be a vital tool in looking at games. You get full transparency in AccuScore's selections season to date. Last week, AccuScore's two highest probability picks were USC -20 and BYU -7.5 Prior to that game, the AccuScore computer was 1-4 in picks where BYU and USC played. Moreover, if you watched BYU vs. Oklahoma you would have seen BYU struggled against a fast defense. And if you had watched either of the two USC games, you would see that they are a run first, ball control offense. This week, Tennessee plays Ohio and is a 23.5 point favorite. Ohio +23.5 is a 62.9% favorite. It is easy to look at those numbers and think Ohio is the play. You are wrong. This is a situation where you might want to fade AccuScore and here is why. This season, the AccuScore computer is 0-6 in games where Tennessee and Ohio are involved. That shows that game involves two teams that are not playing close to the computer simulations. You will see that the 62.9% is vulnerable. If taking the +23.5 with these teams has 0-6 trending accuracy, then laying the 23.5 is inversely proportional. My next step is applying the eye test. Tennessee has struggled against name brand opponents that look to control the game in the trenches. Ohio is not that team. Although Tennessee has struggled in their past two games under Crompton, I look at the first game of the season and see a team that put up over 600 yards of offense and beat up on a second tier program. My suggestion if you are going to play this game is to fade AccuScore and lay the points with Tennessee. Make sure you use your Daily Line Report to see the trending accuracy for the teams and situations involving your picks.
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