Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Detroit Red Wings (1) vs Dallas Stars (5):  Detroit leads 3-2

Series Analysis:  Detroit opened this series with a 3-0 lead, but Dallas has forced a comeback the last two games to bring this series back home, down 3-2 in game six.  What has been the difference in this recent turnaround?

For the Stars, it has all come down to Marty Turco.  Turco stopped 87.2 percent of shots in the first three games, but stopped 97.3 percent of shots in the last two games.  Brad Richards, Mike Modano, and Sergei Zubov were absent from the offense in the first three games, but stepped up their play as well in the last two games to help break Chris Osgood.

Osgood has been excellent for Detroit in the playoffs, and has only given up five goals in the last two games.  The problem for Detroit has been a lack of offense in the last two games, scoring one goal in each.  Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Tomas Holmstrom are the top goal scorers in simulations, but only Zetterberg has scored a goal in the last two games, which is a good testament to the level of play from Turco.

Key for Detroit:  Osgood is allowing two or fewer goals in 70 percent of simulations, showing that he is continuing his stellar play.  The key for Detroit will be living up to their expectations on offense.  Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk are scoring a point in every simulation, but the key to breaking Marty Turco will come down to players like Tomas Holmstrom, Mikael Samuelsson, and Jiri Hudler.  Each of these players is scoring in around half of simulations, but as we saw in the first three games, when these players step up and help out Zetterberg and Datsyuk, the Red Wings offense is hard to stop.

Key for Dallas:  Turco is allowing three or more goals in 70 percent of simulations, which means the Stars are going to need support from guys like Richards and Modano.  Richards, Modano, and Zubov are all scoring a point in around two thirds of simulations, which won’t be enough for Dallas.  Dallas could use extra help from players like Niklas Hagman, who is the second highest goal scorer in simulations.

AccuScore Projections:  Dallas still has a tough road ahead of them.  The Stars are winning 42.4 percent of simulations tonight, and even if they pull the upset, Detroit is winning 68.3 percent of simulations at home in game seven.  This gives the Stars a 13 percent chance of completing this comeback.

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