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The 87% Solution
Written by Stan Rosenfield

Like the guy in “Casablanca,” I’m shocked to find gambling going on.  I thought the Super Bowl was about sportsmanship and fair play.

Now I find out there are betting services, which--for a price--will let you in on their Super Bowl picks.  The successful services are right about 60 percent of the time.  For that, some of their customers are willing to throw them a parade.  If they could hit 65 percent, they'd have streets named after them, maybe even an airport.

What if I told you there is a system that has been right 87 percent of the time?  That’s right – 87 percent.  And you wouldn't have to name a street after me.  Or even throw me a parade.  (I’m rather shy and prefer to keep a low profile.)

Instead of naming a street after me or listen to ramblings on who to take, I will simplify things. 

  • In 33 of 38 (87%) previous Super Bowls, all you had to do to win your bet was pick the team that would win the game.  Forget the spread.  It was irrelevant.  Now there's a trend worth writing about.

I know there have been 41 Super Bowl games (not 38), but three ended up in pushes and are irrelevant to this discussion.

In 33 of the remaining Super Bowls, the favorites covered 24 times.  In nine games, the underdogs not only covered but won straight up, needing no help from the spread.  That's what you call a pattern!

So now you know you don't have to spend half a New York minute handicapping the spread.  Odds are the spread will have nothing to do with whether you win or lose your bet.

The only catch is you still have to pick the winner.  That's not my problem.  You take it from here.

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Rue said:

 
Gmen plus twelve, Gmen plus 18 and Umder 61, Gmen plus 12 and the Under 55 Parle. The Gmen was the easy part, who would have thunk the Under!!
Still kicken myself!! smilies/sad.gif
February 05, 2008

Briannnnnnnnnnnn said:

 
that theory was completely wrong this year good job. Not only did the favorite not cover but they didn't even win. Even before the game the obvious bet was the Giants.
February 05, 2008

Rick Z said:

 
Around 5:45 pm EST, Eli will finally wake-up from his dream and realize what the phrase "Wait till next year" really means. Final score will be Patriot 38 Giants 17. It does not matter that the Patriots have not covered the spread since week 12, what matters is that Eli has no experience on this stage and Tom does, Period!
February 03, 2008

Joel D said:

 
The betting public (60%-75%) and everyone I know are taking the Giants, including 'big money' from NY, NJ and that area. This will turn the bookmakers and Las Vegas into 'bettors' themselves. I don't expect them to lose the biggest game of the year.
Here's why I think the Pats easily cover the spread: Belichik will try to take away the Giants vaunted running attack and make Manning beat them (making them 'one-dimensional'). First Super Bowl 'jitters' will have an early effect on the Giants. Brady will go deep and often to Moss others, taking advantage of the Giants' week corners and safeties while avoiding their good linebacking corps. With early success, the Brady bunch will keep the pressure on and rack up a 14-17 point lead by the end of the first quarter. I expect the Pats to be ahead something like 27-10 or 24-7 by halftime. Then, if there's a Giants turnover along the way, they will have to abandon their running game altogether. This will force Manning into making bad decisions and the Pats will run up the score, easily covering the point-spread.
February 02, 2008

Andrew F said:

 
How can you not take the Giants getting 13 or 14 points. The patriots haven't covered that many since week 12.
February 01, 2008

Brent R said:

 
Then, from this, it is assumed that we should be the favorite to cover and the underdog straight-up, correct?
February 01, 2008

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