Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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BASELINE: DALLAS 67% NEW YORK 33%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: 27-21

A month ago, almost everyone would have agreed that the Dallas Cowboys had a better offense than the New York Giants.  While that still may be the case, a closer look reveals that it is no longer an obvious choice.  While Tony Romo is forecasted for a better game than Eli Manning, the Giants quarterback is holding his own.  Romo is forecasted for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns while Manning is throwing for 235 yards and 1.5 scores.  This game is likely to come down to quarterback play so the edge goes to Romo and the Cowboys, but on any given Sunday Manning and the Giants are very capable of pulling off the shocker.

The Giants running back combo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw is averaging five yards per carry for 115 yards.  Dallas’ running backs, Marion Barber and Julius Jones, by comparison are combining for 100 yards on just four yards per carry.  Terrell Owens is an injury question having sprained his ankle late in the season.  Owens of course has been known to play through injury and recover quickly most notably during Super Bowl XXXIX with the Eagles.  Our simulations expect Terrell Owens to be playing at about 75% effectiveness which is still good for nearly 80 yards receiving and a 40% chance of a touchdown catch.

Terrell Owens Out?
Owens is a game time decision as he deals with a high ankle sprain.  AccuScore fully expects him to play, but only at 75% of his typical high level.  Owens is averaging 4.3 receptions for 76 yards and an average of 0.9 touchdowns per simulation.  In simulations where Owens was out Dallas won just 57% of simulations and Romo’s passing touchdown declined from 2.0 to 1.5 without his favorite wide receiver.

Tony Romo	WIN%	CMP	ATT	%	YD	TD	INT
Baseline w/TO	67%	20.9	32.8	63.7%	269	2.0	1.2
No TO	57%	21.4	33.9	63.1%	259	1.5	1.3

How Big is Home-Field Advantage?
Home-field advantage is important, but not as big as one might think in this case.  Manning’s passer rating is more than 10 points higher on the road than it is at home this year, and he had his best game against a top rated pass defense last week at Tampa Bay.  Romo had an excellent overall rating at home this year, but he did have his worst game on December 16 at home against Philadelphia (in front of Jessica Simpson in a pink jersey of course).  At the same time, some of the Cowboys’ best wins were on the road (@ PHI 38-17, @ NY 31-20, and @ CHI 34-10).

In simulations where the Giants were the home team, Dallas was still favored winning 59% of simulations.  For comparisons sake, if the Green Bay-Seattle game were played in Seattle, the Seahawks improve their chances for a win a full 22 percentage points.  The Giants improve by just 8 percentage points.  This is a match-up where home-field is less important than usual.

HOME FIELD	DAL	NYG
NYG @ DAL	67%	33%
DAL @ NYG	59%	41%

Giants Pass Rush Plays a Big Role
The Giants led the league in sacks with 53.  Their defensive line with Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck are capable of generating pressure without blitzing.  Tony Romo’s escapability is one of his best attributes and even though he was pressured heavily in Week 17 against Washington he was actually sacked only once.  In baseline simulations the Giants are sacking Romo nearly two times on average.  However if they have greater success, sacking him over four times per simulation, the Giants improve their chances to win by seven percentage points.

ROMO	DAL	SACK
BASELINE	67%	1.9
2X SACKS	60%	4.3

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