Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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THE COMPUTER VS. THE ANALYST

AccuScore’s Fantasy Analyst, Tim Williams, has rated player by position. At the same time AccuScore simulations have produced their own rankings. In some cases there are significant differences between the two rankings. Why? Tim uses a combination of quantitative statistics and his own expertise to predict what will happen this season. AccuScore’s simulations are 100% based on statistics.

The point of this analysis is to identify players who are rated differently by the two systems and explain the cause of the differences.

TIGHT ENDS

Ben Watson
Ben Watson has not been a consistent performer the past two seasons. In 2006 he averaged a solid 50 yards per game (23 percent of Tom Brady’s average passing yards). He had just 3 receiving touchdowns out of 49 receptions (6 percent of receptions). In 2007, he averaged just 32 yards per game (11 percent of Brady’s average passing yards), but his touchdown rate sky-rocketed to 16.7 percent as Tom Brady broke records. AccuScore’s forecast has split the difference between these two seasons. It has Watson averaging 15 percent of Brady’s average pass yards with 12.5 percent of receptions resulting in touchdowns. The average of Watson’s past two seasons results in a #4 rankings. Tim has interpreted Watson’s inconsistency differently. He seems to expect lower receiving yards like in 2007 along with low touchdown rate like in 2006 which is why Tim rates him just 13th.

Vernon Davis
AccuScore simulations put Davis 18th while Tim ranks him 11th. AccuScore will be wrong about Davis if two things happen: 1) Mike Martz puts in a pass heavy offense that passes over 58 percent of the time vs the 50 percent they have relied on with Frank Gore as their best offensive player; and 2) Alex Smith can actually implement the offense with a passer rating of at least 78 and not the horrendous 57 of last season. AccuScore’s lack of faith in Alex Smith has resulted in a lower ranking for Vernon Davis.

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