BASELINE:  VATECH 51% KANSAS 49%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: VATECH 27 KANSAS 26

Kansas and Virginia Tech will have the spotlight to themselves when they meet in the Orange Bowl. AccuScore projects this game to be close with Hokies winning just over 51% of simulations by just half a point.

Virginia Tech will once again rotate Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor at quarterback to keep the Kansas defense off balance. Glennon and Taylor have been effective in sharing duties and are projected to account for roughly 200 yards of offense. Running back Brandon Orr will pitch in and is forecasted to rush for 86 yards and a touchdown. The simulations show the Hokie defense to have a big night by sacking Todd Reesing three times and forcing 1.5 turnovers.

Kansas is led by quarterback, Todd Reesing, who is forecasted to throw for 235 yards and a touchdown. Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp will carry the ball close to 30 times and are projected to combine for approximately 150 yards and a touchdown.

Should Virginia Tech Stick with Just One QB?
Virginia Tech employs the two quarterback system, showcasing pocket passer Sean Glennon and the mobile Tyrod Taylor.  AccuScore wanted to know if this was the best approach for Virginia Tech, and who gives them a better chance to win if they could only use one.

Our data showed that the Hokies win probability drops when they only use one quarterback. They won 48% of the simulations with Taylor and 46% of the time with Glennon.

  © AccuScore.com

With both quarterbacks playing, the Hokies are winning 51% of the time.  By playing both quarterbacks, Virginia Tech can maximize the strengths, and minimize the weaknesses of both quarterbacks.

How Valuable is Kansas’s Aqib Talib?
All American Aquib Talib is a shutdown corner and is the key to the Jayhawk defense. AccuScore wanted to measure the value of Talib and see how his presence affects both teams.

We removed Talib from the lineup and re-simulated the game without him playing. Without Talib, Kansas’s win probability plummeted from 49 to 38 percent.

Talib’s impact can be felt in numerous areas:

1. Fewer big passing plays:  As a “shutdown” corner Talib will cover the opposing team’s big play receiver and limit the number of completed passes over 15 yards.
2. Fewer interceptions by Kansas: Talib has good hands (good enough to play WR) and without him AccuScore projects 20% fewer interceptions by Kansas.
3. Higher Completion Percentage by Opposing QB:  The benefits of having a shut down corner helps out the entire defense.  Opposing QBs could expect up to a +3 percentage point increase in completion percentage if Talib were not playing.

OR
    
More Short Pass Completions / Less Success on 3rd Down:  Opposing QBs may be able to maintain or even increase their completion percentage by completing short passes.  Unfortunately, this significantly reduces 3rd Down conversion percentage.

Here are our projections of Glennon’s performance when Talib plays, and when we removed him from the game.

       © AccuScore.com