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MLB Waiver Wire Wonders
Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The fantasy baseball season is either entering the playoffs in head to head leagues, or has a month to go in weekly leagues.  At this point in the season, about half of the teams in each league are out of the picture for the league title.  The remaining teams aren’t in the playoff picture because they have holes to fill via the waiver wire.

With the fantasy football season coming up in two weeks, and the MLB playoff races heating up, this will be the last edition of “Waiver Wire Wonders” for the 2008 MLB season.  Monday will be the last “MLB Trade Market”, as I’m sure most trade deadlines would have passed (a few of mine passed yesterday, and a few pass this weekend.)

The fantasy football articles will start in September, but for now I recommend you check out the draft preparation articles, as well as the cheat sheet to help you with your drafts.  As for baseball, I will be doing a weekly article called “Down the Stretch” focusing on the MLB playoff picture, and the players having a big impact on the races.  Look for that to run on Mondays.

The Waiver Wire Wonders article was my first article for AccuScore, starting last season during the fantasy football season, and for that reason it has always been my favorite to write.  I appreciate the readership this season, and I hope my articles helped you win your leagues.  As this is the final installment of the Waiver Wire Wonders, let’s take a look at the Waiver Wire All-Stars of the 2008 season to wrap this up.

Waiver Wire All-Stars

Batters

Carlos Quentin – Quentin leads the majors in homers with 35, has a .294 average, and went undrafted in the majority of leagues.  He’s arguably one of the top performers in fantasy baseball this season.

Nate McLouth – He’s cooled down recently, but has 22 homers, 14 steals, and a .275 average on the season.  Only Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and Grady Sizemore have more homers and stolen bases.

Ryan Ludwick – To date Ludwick has 31 homers and a .306 average.  Considering Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard have averages below .240, you could make the case that Ludwick is one of the top five fantasy producers this season.

Jorge Cantu – It’s been a nice bounce back season for Cantu, who is hitting .281 with 22 homers.  This is his best season since 2005 when he hit .286 with 28 homers.

Jay Bruce – Since his call-up around June, Bruce has hit .257 with 13 homers in 296 at bats.  It’s not Ryan Braun 2007 material, but it’s still a good performance.

Alexei Ramirez – He has been eligible at second, short, and the outfield, and is hitting .309 with 14 homers and nine stolen bases.  He has easily been a top five at either second or short this season.

Luke Scott – He was one of the trade pieces in the Miguel Tejada deal, and showed why, hitting 21 homers with a .272 average so far.

Mark Reynolds – Reynolds has a Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn syndrome, hitting 24 homers, but batting .245.  He’s a third baseman, which gives him a little more value than he would have playing at first base or in the outfield (which explains why he is owned in all leagues, but Luke Scott is still owned in half of leagues.)

Aubrey Huff – Huff has 27 homers and a .299 average, putting him within range of his career best season in 2003 when he posted a .311 average and 34 homers.

Pitchers

Cliff Lee – Lee had a 6.29 ERA last season, but broke out this season with an AL-best 18 wins, 141 strikeouts, a 2.43 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP, and he’s not done yet.

Edinson Volquez – Volquez was traded for Josh Hamilton, and while Hamilton went in the middle rounds of the draft, Volquez went undrafted.  He broke out with 15 wins so far, 150 strikeouts in 151.2 innings, a 2.73 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

Ervin Santana – After his horrible season last year where he went 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA, Santana responded with 13 wins, a 3.40 ERA, and 166 strikeouts so far in 2008.

Justin Duchscherer – Duchscherer’s conversion to a starter was a success.  In 141.2 innings he posted 10 wins, 95 strikeouts, a 2.54 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP.

Mike Mussina – He ranks third in wins this season, behind Lee and Brandon Webb.  Mussina had 106 strikeouts, a 3.35 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP, despite going undrafted.

Joe Saunders – Arguably the biggest surprise, Saunders posted 14 wins, a 3.14 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.  Only Roy Halladay, Lee, and Webb have more wins and better ratios.

Aaron Cook – Despite playing in Colorado, Cook put up 15 wins, a 3.86 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP.  What’s more amazing is that his ERA at home was only 4.12.

Pitchers who put up good numbers all around, but nothing spectacular in any particular area:  Todd Wellemeyer, Jair Jurrjens, Jeremy Guthrie, John Danks, Matt Garza, and Kevin Slowey

Closers

Salomon Torres – Torres lost the closers role in Pittsburgh last year, but was given another chance in Milwaukee when Gagne failed.  He responded with 24 saves, a 2.56 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP.

Brian Fuentes – Manny Corpas lost the closers job in Colorado, and Fuentes returned to the role, recording 24 saves with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.  He also recorded 58 strikeouts in 49.2 innings.

Jon Rauch – Rauch took over as the closer in Washington, posting 18 saves before being traded to Arizona.  He now serves as the backup to Brandon Lyon, but I would be willing to bet he becomes the closer in Arizona by the end of the season.

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smoking gun said:

 
hey tim, the playoffs are about to start in my league, and i need a boost for my inconsistent offense. i have a good load of pitchers, so i was offered this trade- i give scott kazmir and tim lincecum and recieve aubrey huff, felix hernandez, and nate mclouth. i was also offered another trade in which i would be giving dan haren and josh beckett for matt holliday. are any of these trades worth it? thanks
August 04, 2008

Kyle Ritz the one and only. said:

 
Yo, waz crakkin nd/or poppin Timmy -upside down M- hOw do yUu seE my dawwG cARLos BELLtRAN FinisHINg uP Da SeAZZON?? BelTRan or CurtiZ GranderSON? Whoo BeTTA?
July 26, 2008

Beat the living Pujols out of them! said:

 
Hi Tim, how do you see Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis finishing the season...Jeff Francis, is he a legit clutch pick?
July 26, 2008

smoking gun said:

 
hey tim, ive got a trade for you, aramis ramirez and manny ramirez for magglio ordonez. i have garrett atkins for backup, and aramis goes into deep slumps, while atkins has been heating up. what do you think?
July 26, 2008

twilliams said:

 
Halladay,

I don't know why you would have to include Manny if you're trading Johan for Holliday. And if you do have to include Manny, I'd want something else back in return, since the difference between Holliday and Johan is slim.
July 24, 2008

twilliams said:

 
Smoking Gun,

In the trade, I like the Kazmir side, assuming you need pitching help. You might be able to get someone else back in the deal, since that person will have to drop someone anyways.

As for Bay/Atkins, I generally go for positional scarcity, so Atkins would be my pick. This is assuming you don't have another third baseman, and assuming you don't start five outfielders. In either of those cases I like Bay better.
July 24, 2008

twilliams said:

 
Pujols,

To answer your first question, with the recent trade of Rauch, the best bets for saves are Street (short term) or Torres/Gregg (Long Term). There's the possibility Street gets traded, so I would go with Torres/Gregg, although it looks like there's no urgency to snap up closers.

As for the second question, I'd do McLouth/Sheets for Holliday. In a shallow league all that matters is who got the best player, and filling your starting lineup needs. Sheets carries an injury history, and you're pretty set with pitching. Holliday is a clear upgrade over McLouth.
July 24, 2008

halladay511 said:

 
hey tim, need some help...johan and manny for holliday? what do you think?
July 21, 2008

Kick Their Pujols said:

 
TIM!!!!!!!!! Need BIG help on a trade. I'm giving away Nate Mclouth and Ben Sheets and receiving Matt Holliday. Its a non keeper league and my outfielders are ryan braun, carlos lee, and vlad guerrero and utility is either aubry huff or curtis granderson. My starters are felix hernandez, cc sabathia, ben sheets, roy holladay, eric bedard (d.l.), jake peavy, and john danks. of course ben sheets would be gone if i traded. One do you think this is a good and productive trade for me, and two do you think it would be better if i gave felix hernandez, or no one instead? Thanks!
July 20, 2008

smoking gun said:

 
one more question tim. in a non keeper league, would you rather have jason bay or garrett atkins?
July 20, 2008

smoking gun said:

 
hi tim. what do you think of this trade -> scott kazmir for nate mclouth and granderson. the team with kazmir needs some rbis and runs. thanks
July 20, 2008

Kick Their Pujols said:

 
Hi Tim, I have an open roster spot and i wanna fill it with a productive player and not really a waiver wire pickup. I have a lotta confidence in my batting and my batting is doing real well, so i wanna fill it with a picther spot. my starting pitchers are felix hernandez, cc sabathia, ben sheets, roy holladay, eric bedard (d.l.), jake peavy, and john danks. my relief pitchers are brad lidge, joe nathan, and fransico cordero. I dont think i need a starter more than a relief guy or vice versa, so im just looking for the best pitcher to get me the most points. I asked you previously for starting pitching help, and i signed danks, but i dont like tim hudson. Burnett, Cain, and Gavin Floyd are unconsistant and confusing, so im gonna ask for relief help. Who's best...J. Rauch, K. Gregg, H. Street, Balfour, S. Torres, B. Fuentes, B. Wilson, or Todd Jones. It's a lotta people again, sorry, Thanks a lot!
July 20, 2008

Kick Their Pujols said:

 
To Jon Lee...its a non keeper 6 team league ...one of every position, 3 outfielders, and one utility. 21 player roster. my outfield is pretty good with carlos lee, mclouth, vladdy, curtis granderson, ryan braun, and jason bay.
July 10, 2008

jonlee said:

 
what kind of league has ichiro, abreu, and rios on the waiver wire?! a 3-team league?
July 10, 2008

Kick Their Pujols said:

 
Hi, Tim. I'm in the same league as John Rambo and im offering him an amazing deal that satisfies both parties. See if you cant try to talk some sense into him, unless im wrong that is. Ok, i have great outfield help and he needs outfield help. and he just completed the trade where he gave matt holliday for linsecum and becket and ramariaz. his pitching is pretty much stacked now with linsecum, becket, dan haren, rich harden, johan santana, scott kazmir, ervin santana, and john lackey...thats a lotta good pitchers and i think he can afford to trade one away for his outfielder need. So, my trade was scott kazmir for any two of these three outfielders...jason bay, nate mclouth, and curtis granderson. its a non keeper league as well... so its scott kazmir for 2 of these 3 (jason bay, mclouth, granderson) a good trade for both parties?
July 10, 2008

johnrambo said:

 
hey tim, thanks for the help on the trade. who should i pick up from the free agents pool: alex rios, abreu, or ichiro. if you need to know where i stand in statistics in my league, i guess i could use help in RBIs and runs.
July 10, 2008

twilliams said:

 
Kick Their Pujols...heh.

Right away Danks sticks out to me, just because I've got him on the majority of my teams, including my dynasty team where I consider him untouchable. AccuScore projects he will have seven wins, a 2.81 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP with 64 Ks in 80 innings over the remainder of the season.

Two others I like are Cain and Hudson. Cain has trouble with consistency, but no one on this list has more potential than he does, and no one is better when they are on their game than him. Hudson is a solid pitcher if you don't need the strikeouts. AccuScore projections have Danks and Cain striking out more guys, with Hudson providing seven wins, a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.

I don't like Floyd, and AccuScore agrees, projecting him with a 4.00 ERA for the remainder of the season. Burnett is too inconsistent for my tastes, and there's always the question of injury. If you don't need strikeouts, Hudson is your best bet. If you want the total package, then Danks is your guy. My list is:

1. Danks
2. Hudson
3. Cain
4. Floyd
5. Burnett
July 09, 2008

twilliams said:

 
Rambo,

That definitely is a great return for Holliday, even if he's putting up first round numbers. AccuScore has Holliday hitting .339 with 13 homers and 8 steals over the remainder of the season. That seems reasonable. Manny is hitting 11 homers, but has a .261 average in AccuScore forecasts. I'd have to disagree with the computer there, since Manny has hit no lower than .306 after the All-Star break the last three seasons. You're looking at about a 30 point drop in average, and in return, you're getting two aces. AccuScore forecasts have Lincecum/Beckett combining for 13 wins, 174 Ks, a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 173 combined innings. Run with this deal.
July 09, 2008

Kick Their Pujols said:

 
Hi, Tim, eric bedards on the dl so who from here do you think is the best pickup in a non keeper league? Could you kidna rank them best to worst? and this pickup i would like to keep for a while not just one day. Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, or A.J. Burnett? Sorry i know its a lot of people. Thanks a lot!

July 09, 2008

johnrambo said:

 
yeah, youre correct, you probably couldnt answer those quesetions like that, but i hope you can answer this one. should i trade matt holliday for lincecum beckett and manny ramirez? it seems like im getting a lot of value for one guy. i can get david ortiz instead of ramirez also, but i want an outfielder. thanks
July 09, 2008

twilliams said:

 
Are you saying that Ethier, Rios, Ichiro, and Abreu are free agents? Or are you suggesting trading for them rather than going for a free agent?

I really couldn't answer your question unless I knew the league size, roster sizes, and available free agents, plus your needs (steals, homers, average, etc.)
July 09, 2008

johnrambo said:

 
Hi tim, im in need of an outfielder that can play a good role on the bench. ive been thinking about picking up alex rios, ethier, abreu, or ichiro, there is too much parity among the outfielders in the free agents pool in my league. are there any hidden gems that i should pick up? thanks in advance.
July 09, 2008

twilliams said:

 
If you're trading Pujols for Berkman, I'd re-consider. While I'm not saying Berkman has been a fluke this season, I will say that his average has been out of control. It's mainly the product of an amazing month of May where he hit .471. In April he hit .303 and in June he hit .319.

In the last three years Berkman has hit .304 in the final three months of the season. I expect his average for the remainder of this year to be in the .310 to .320 range. As for his other numbers, they're all legit. He has averaged 21 homers, 53 runs, and 58 RBIs in the final three months the last three years.

Those are solid numbers, but you're really just making a lateral move by swapping him out with Pujols, and probably a bit of a downgrade. Over the same time span Pujols has averaged 20 homers, 61 runs, and 59 RBIs. The kicker is the average that Pujols will give you. In the final three months of the last three years Pujols has hit .349, .349, and .321.

Bottom line is that they've both been playing well this season, and they both will continue to play well. However, if you want the best bet for the guy who will end up with the better average, it's Pujols. There's a reason Berkman's .347 average this season is getting way more hype than the .346 average of Pujols: It's expected out of Pujols. Add in the fact that they've both hit a homer about once every 14.5 at bats this season, and there's no reason to be looking for an upgrade over Pujols. Plus, I just love saying Pujols out loud, which is why my team name is called "Kick Their Pujols".
July 09, 2008

FND said:

 
btw, i was bestdrive also, i dont know why i made two different names...but anyway you saved me big time on the braun trade and unfotuanatly i had confidence in escobar, but at least im up to date now thanks to you...i have another question, theres a possible trade in the works, lance berman for albert pujols...i put lance berkman at first baseman so theres not a position problem. give me those beast stats you find and help me out again pls!
July 08, 2008

twilliams said:

 
FND,

The latest updates on Escobar (which happen to be today) are saying that there is a possibility that he may need surgery, which will put him out for 12 months. Even if he can avoid surgery, I don't see him coming back until late in the year, and only in a reserve role. Feel free to drop him from your DL if you need the spot for other players. I've done so as of three weeks ago.
July 08, 2008

twilliams said:

 
BestDrive,

Braun has to be outfield eligible by now in your league. What do you hate about him that would make you trade Sheets for an upgrade from Braun to Holliday?

So far Braun has hit .310 in the majors with a home run every 14.62 at bats and the potential to steal 15 bases a year. The only difference between Holliday and Braun is the increase in average, which is big this year after Braun's .248 in June. The question you have to ask is, do you want to trade Ben Sheets for a boost in average? Holliday will definitely help you win the batting average category, but Braun won't do anything to help you lose it.
July 08, 2008

FND said:

 
hey any updates on Kelvin Escobar?...how do you think he'll do?
July 08, 2008

BestDrive said:

 
Hi Tim. I was wondering if you think that this would be a good trade for me. I'm giving away Ryan Braun and Ben Sheets for Matt Holliday. My other third baseman is Miguel Cabrera and i think he'll bounce back. My other pitchers are C.C. Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Eric Bedard, Roy Holliday, Felix Hernandez, and Ricky Nolasco as a waiver wire pickup. My other out fielders are good but putting someone as dominant as Holliday would be great. Do you think this is a good trade for me?
July 08, 2008

PW said:

 
If it's cooked already and comes in a bag, you don't tip, no matter how the bag gets to you.
May 17, 2008

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