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This series between the AL West winning Angels and the Wild Card Red Sox provides an interesting match-up because of the recent history between both teams.

This series projection is based on the following pitching assumptions:

Game 1: Lackey vs. Lester

Game 2: Weaver vs. Beckett

Game 3: Kazmir vs. Bucholz

Game 4: Saunders vs. Matsuzaka

Game 5: Lackey vs. Lester

The schedule would allow Both Game 1 starters to pitch in a potential Game 4 on three days’ rest and the Game 2 starters to pitch Game 5 on normal rest. This simulation does not include that scenario.

With Games 1, 2, and 5 at home in Anaheim the Angels are slight favorites in what are fairly even pitching match-ups. Game 3 is a virtual coin flip with Scott Kazmir having a strong history against the Red Sox, and Bucholz’s poor first half work factored in. If Bucholz performs closer to his talent level as he has in the second half of the season then that game could tip in favor of the Red Sox. The biggest simulation difference is Game 4 with Dice-K against Saunders with Boston having a 6% edge.

Overall the Angels are slight favorites winning the series 51% of the time. This is a result of a combination of homefield advantage, better overall performance this season, and better recent performance. The Angels finished the year on a 7-1 spurt and 11-6 over their last 17 games while the Red Sox were swept by both the Yankees and Blue Jays the last week of September.

If the Angels are able to maintain their projected edge and win this series it would run counter to the recent past playoff history. Boston swept Los Angeles of Anaheim in both 2004 and 2007 in the Division Series while winning 3-1 a year ago leading most to assume the Sox will win again. Psychological edge or not, this is likely the deepest rotation the Angels have had this decade, and the lineup is certainly more balanced around Vladimir Guerrero than it was a season ago.