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The Angels have decided to forgo the opportunity to pitch ace John Lackey potentially three times in this series, and utilize two left-handers in a four man rotation. The projected Angels rotation is Lackey in Game 1 followed by Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, and then Scott Kazmir. This is reflected in the new series projection below:

The Yankees have given indications that they plan on using a three-man rotation with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettite. That would allow them to use ace Sabathia three times including a potential Game 7. This is the most likely scenario unless something were to happen such as injury, or an unusually high pitch count for Sabathia in Game 1.

In my first preview, the three man rotation had given the Yankees a boost. New York was projected to win the series 62% of the time, but that had projected Weaver in Game 2 followed by Kazmir and Saunders at home. The actual rotation has pushed Kazmir to Game 4 with Saunders a lefthander pitching on the road.

With the rotation order settled (and with Ervin Santana in the pen) the Angels have improved their outlook slightly by the following percentages:

Even with the Yankees going with only their three best starters*, it appears Mike Scioscia’s rotation decisions are the right ones. Saunders projects to do just as well as Jered Weaver in Game 2. Being a lefty, he may be able to limit the effects of the new Yankee Stadium’s short right-field dimensions. Saunder’s has also had success in the past in old Yankee Stadium. Both were mentioned by Scioscia as reasons for giving Saunders the start on the road. Weaver improves the outlook against Pettite by 4%. Kazmir also improves the Game 4 match-up for the Angels by 4%. This is possibly because Kazmir has pitched much better in Angel Stadium in his career than in New York. He has made four starts in each city and posted a significantly lower ERA (3.16) in Anaheim than in New York (5.04 in the old Stadium).

*There is the possibility of rain in New York. In the event of a postponement, the Yankees would likely use four starters meaning either Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain would start a game in Anaheim.

Interestingly, if the Angels themselves decided to go with a three-man rotation, it would not help their chances significantly if at all.

Even with their ace, Lackey, pitching against Sabathia in Games 1, 4, and 7, the Angels have the same overall winning percentage (43%). The difference appears to be the performance of Kazmir which is offsetting gains made by Lackey and Weaver. Kazmir though has performed better since moving over to Anaheim and being reunited with his former pitching coach Mike Butcher. If his late season improvements are real and a result of some reported slight mechanical tweaks, he actually should be projected to do better than his overall numbers would indicate.

The argument for excluding Saunders would be the tradeoff of another start by the team’s best pitcher who has a proven track record of excellence in the postseason. Saunders could also be used as a lefty out of the pen in multiple games to combat the likes of Cano, Damon and Matsui. The Angels currently lacks a left-handed middle reliever aside from closer Brian Fuentes. Adding a lefty in the bullpen, and replacing your fourth starter with your clear ace is a tradeoff I would make without thinking. Mike Scioscia doesn’t feel the same. Time will tell if his decision will payoff.