AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

MLB SYSTEM

AccuScore’s top MLB system since launching the sport in 2006 has been Side Value Wagering. Before analyzing top trends of the seasons, the first step is calculating Side Value.

DETERMINING SIDE VALUE AND MONEY LINE PREDICTIONS

In the sample below NYY is favored and if you risk 130 you win 100 if NYY wins. If you bet on the underdog BOS you win 110 if you risk 100. To determine Side Value we translate the +110/-130 odds into a Las Vegas Win % (LW%). If Boston pays off 110 for every 100 you risk, we interpret that as Vegas saying for every 110 losses, Boston is expected to win 100 times for a 47.6% chance of winning. If NYY are expected to win 130 out of 230 games their winning % is 56.5%. You’ll notice these two percentages add up to >100%. This is the Sportsbook’s Juice. They want to get their cut no matter who wins. We adjust the winning percentages so they add up to 100%. BOS down to 45.7%, NYY to 54.3%.

In this sample Boston is winning 48.2% of simulations while the Yankees are winning 51.8%. Because Boston’s simulation winning % is higher than the Las Vegas Win % the Side Value Prediction is for Boston. Since the Yankees are winning more than 50% of simulations the Money Line prediction is NYY.

WINNER’S EDGE TOOLS

Winner’s Edge Members have access to the key features that make Side Value and Money Line wagering with AccuScore easy. Some members go with whatever AccuScore picks, while other members like to look use simulation trends to come up with a narrower, hopefully more profitable, set of picks.

LIVE BETTING PREDICTIONS

The snapshot below is a taken from the Live Betting Predictions. The betting lines are refreshed every 15 minutes and based on the current simulation data AccuScore shows the Side Value (SV) and Money Line (ML) pick. You also get the percent chance of the game going over or under as well as the chance of each team covering the Run Line.

DAILY LINE REPORT

The Daily Line Report has 2 pieces of information. The first piece is an analysis of the Upcoming Games. The sample below shows the same Side Value, Money Line, and Over/Under as above in the Live Betting Predictions, but the DLR is not updated like the Live Betting Predictions are. The Upcoming Games page does show AccuScore’s performance for the teams and pitchers involved. For example, the SV YTD for Atlanta is +143. This means that for the year, AccuScore’s SV predictions for Atlanta on the road is +143. For Washington it is +565 at home. You also see the performance from the past 14 days. Since this is the start of the season, the past 14 days is virtually the same as the YTD.

These are AccuScore’s prediction record trends, NOT ATS trends. This does not tell you if AccuScore picked Atlanta to cover or not cover, just that whatever our prediction was it was accurate enough to generate profits.

The Daily Line Report also shows overall season trends by Game Type. The table below shows our prediction record from 2008. You see that when the home team wins 50 to 54.9% of simulations, AccuScore’s Side Value prediction record was 274-257 for a +4541. However, when the home team won 45-49.9% of simulations AccuScore’s SV prediction record was just 179-202 for -632.
For all Side Value and Money Line trends the Units are based on 100 unit wagers for every game. So if you are wagering on a heavy favorite you might only generate a 25 to 50 unit profit on the 100 unit wager. If the SV pick is a heavy underdog, you might win +200 or more on a 100 unit wager. This is why overall accuracy for Home Win 65%+ of Simulations is much higher at 63% than the 52% for Home Win 50-54.9%, but the payoffs per game were much higher for Home Win 50-54.9% so the profits were better.

AccuScore reports trends on Money Line (betting on team winning over 50% of simulations regardless of Side Value) and two Over/Under types. These betting strategies have not performed as well as Side Value. However, even when the overall performance is not profitable, there are profitable segments